Enhanced Simulation Notebook for ALADYNOULLI¶
This notebook provides an improved simulation framework with:
- Better visualizations
- Comprehensive parameter recovery analysis
- Training progress tracking
- Detailed trajectory comparisons
In [1]:
import sys
import os
# Get the parent directory of current directory
parent_dir = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.getcwd()))
sys.path.append(parent_dir)
sys.path.append('/Users/sarahurbut/aladynoulli2/pyScripts/')
# Now you can import from pyScripts
from oldmarch.cluster_g_logit_init_acceptpsi import *
%load_ext autoreload
In [2]:
%autoreload 2
import numpy as np
import seaborn as sns
import torch
import torch.nn as nn
from scipy.special import expit, softmax
from scipy.stats import multivariate_normal
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from sklearn.metrics import adjusted_rand_score, normalized_mutual_info_score
# Set style
try:
plt.style.use('seaborn-v0_8-darkgrid')
except:
plt.style.use('seaborn-darkgrid')
sns.set_palette("husl")
In [3]:
def compute_smoothed_prevalence(Y, window_size=5):
"""Compute smoothed prevalence over time from binary disease indicators."""
if isinstance(Y, torch.Tensor):
Y = Y.numpy()
N, D, T = Y.shape
prevalence_t = np.zeros((D, T))
for d in range(D):
for t in range(T):
start_idx = max(0, t - window_size // 2)
end_idx = min(T, t + window_size // 2 + 1)
prevalence_t[d, t] = Y[:, d, start_idx:end_idx].mean()
epsilon = 1e-6
prevalence_t = np.clip(prevalence_t, epsilon, 1.0 - epsilon)
return prevalence_t
Data Generation¶
In [4]:
def generate_enhanced_simulation(N=10000, D=20, T=50, K=5, P=5, seed=42):
"""Generate synthetic data with clear structure for testing ALADYNOULLI"""
np.random.seed(seed)
torch.manual_seed(seed)
print(f"Generating simulation with:")
print(f" N={N} individuals, D={D} diseases, T={T} timepoints")
print(f" K={K} signatures, P={P} genetic features")
data = generate_clustered_survival_data(N=N, D=D, T=T, K=K, P=P)
print(f"\nGenerated data shapes:")
print(f" Y: {data['Y'].shape}")
print(f" G: {data['G'].shape}")
print(f" event_times: {data['event_times'].shape}")
print(f" clusters: {data['clusters'].shape}")
return data
# Generate data
data = generate_enhanced_simulation(N=10000, D=20, T=50, K=5, P=5, seed=42)
Generating simulation with: N=10000 individuals, D=20 diseases, T=50 timepoints K=5 signatures, P=5 genetic features Generated data shapes: Y: (10000, 20, 50) G: (10000, 5) event_times: (10000, 20) clusters: (20,)
In [ ]:
Model Fitting¶
In [ ]:
# Initialize model with true clusters
print("\n" + "="*70)
print("FITTING MODEL")
print("="*70)
# Compute prevalence for initialization
prevalence_t = compute_smoothed_prevalence(data['Y'])
# Initialize model
model = AladynSurvivalFixedKernelsAvgLoss_clust_logitInit_psitest(
N=data['Y'].shape[0],
D=data['Y'].shape[1],
T=data['Y'].shape[2],
K=data['K'],
P=data['G'].shape[1],
init_sd_scaler=1e-1,
G=data['G'],
Y=data['Y'],
genetic_scale=1,
W=0.0001,
R=0,
prevalence_t=prevalence_t,
signature_references=None,
healthy_reference=False,
disease_names=None
)
# Initialize with true clusters and psi
model.clusters = data['clusters']
model.initialize_params(true_psi=data['psi'])
print(f"\nModel initialized:")
print(f" Clusters: {model.clusters}")
print(f" K={model.K}, D={model.D}, T={model.T}, P={model.P}")
====================================================================== FITTING MODEL ====================================================================== Cluster Sizes: Cluster 0: 3 diseases Cluster 1: 8 diseases Cluster 2: 4 diseases Cluster 3: 3 diseases Cluster 4: 2 diseases Calculating gamma for k=0: Number of diseases in cluster: 3 Base value (first 5): tensor([ -7.1997, -10.5076, -10.5076, -10.5076, -7.1997]) Base value centered (first 5): tensor([ 0.6275, -2.6804, -2.6804, -2.6804, 0.6275]) Base value centered mean: 3.0059814548621944e-07 Gamma init for k=0 (first 5): tensor([ 0.2781, 0.2558, -0.2568, -0.2966, 0.1783])
/Users/sarahurbut/aladynoulli2/pyScripts_forPublish/clust_huge_amp_vectorized.py:83: UserWarning: To copy construct from a tensor, it is recommended to use sourceTensor.clone().detach() or sourceTensor.clone().detach().requires_grad_(True), rather than torch.tensor(sourceTensor). self.G = torch.tensor(G, dtype=torch.float32) /Users/sarahurbut/aladynoulli2/pyScripts_forPublish/clust_huge_amp_vectorized.py:86: UserWarning: To copy construct from a tensor, it is recommended to use sourceTensor.clone().detach() or sourceTensor.clone().detach().requires_grad_(True), rather than torch.tensor(sourceTensor). self.G = torch.tensor(G_scaled, dtype=torch.float32) /Users/sarahurbut/aladynoulli2/pyScripts_forPublish/clust_huge_amp_vectorized.py:88: UserWarning: To copy construct from a tensor, it is recommended to use sourceTensor.clone().detach() or sourceTensor.clone().detach().requires_grad_(True), rather than torch.tensor(sourceTensor). self.Y = torch.tensor(Y, dtype=torch.float32)
Calculating gamma for k=1: Number of diseases in cluster: 8 Base value (first 5): tensor([-10.0941, -10.0941, -10.0941, -10.0941, -10.0941]) Base value centered (first 5): tensor([-0.0388, -0.0388, -0.0388, -0.0388, -0.0388]) Base value centered mean: 4.2476654016354587e-07 Gamma init for k=1 (first 5): tensor([ 0.0050, -0.0058, 0.0114, 0.0317, -0.0129]) Calculating gamma for k=2: Number of diseases in cluster: 4 Base value (first 5): tensor([ -3.8918, -11.3346, -3.8918, -6.3727, -8.8537]) Base value centered (first 5): tensor([ 3.0761, -4.3667, 3.0761, 0.5952, -1.8857]) Base value centered mean: 2.918243353633443e-07 Gamma init for k=2 (first 5): tensor([-1.7323, 0.0849, 0.6698, 0.0547, -0.2495]) Calculating gamma for k=3: Number of diseases in cluster: 3 Base value (first 5): tensor([-13.8155, -7.1997, -13.8155, -10.5076, -13.8155]) Base value centered (first 5): tensor([-1.6943, 4.9215, -1.6943, 1.6136, -1.6943]) Base value centered mean: -1.7627716033530305e-06 Gamma init for k=3 (first 5): tensor([ 0.5503, -0.3367, -0.1328, -0.1651, -0.1581]) Calculating gamma for k=4: Number of diseases in cluster: 2 Base value (first 5): tensor([-13.8155, -13.8155, -8.8537, -13.8155, -13.8155]) Base value centered (first 5): tensor([-1.0266, -1.0266, 3.9352, -1.0266, -1.0266]) Base value centered mean: -9.34600848268019e-07 Gamma init for k=4 (first 5): tensor([-0.3141, -0.3490, 0.2380, -0.1672, 0.4931]) Initializing with 5 disease states only Initialization complete! Calculating gamma for k=0: Number of diseases in cluster: 4.0 Base value (first 5): tensor([-13.8155, -8.8537, -13.8155, -11.3346, -13.8155]) Base value centered (first 5): tensor([-1.2710, 3.6909, -1.2710, 1.2099, -1.2710]) Base value centered mean: -3.94248957036325e-07 Gamma init for k=0 (first 5): tensor([ 0.4125, -0.2524, -0.0999, -0.1241, -0.1186]) Calculating gamma for k=1: Number of diseases in cluster: 4.0 Base value (first 5): tensor([ -8.8537, -11.3346, -11.3346, -11.3346, -8.8537]) Base value centered (first 5): tensor([ 0.4602, -2.0207, -2.0207, -2.0207, 0.4602]) Base value centered mean: 1.745605459291255e-06 Gamma init for k=1 (first 5): tensor([ 0.2134, 0.1943, -0.1943, -0.2261, 0.1326]) Calculating gamma for k=2: Number of diseases in cluster: 4.0 Base value (first 5): tensor([ -6.3727, -11.3346, -6.3727, -8.8537, -11.3346]) Base value centered (first 5): tensor([ 2.7838, -2.1780, 2.7838, 0.3029, -2.1780]) Base value centered mean: 2.479553273815327e-08 Gamma init for k=2 (first 5): tensor([-1.6011, 0.1384, 0.5971, 0.0474, -0.3158]) Calculating gamma for k=3: Number of diseases in cluster: 4.0 Base value (first 5): tensor([ -8.8537, -11.3346, -6.3727, -8.8537, -8.8537]) Base value centered (first 5): tensor([-0.2764, -2.7573, 2.2045, -0.2764, -0.2764]) Base value centered mean: 9.256839916815807e-07 Gamma init for k=3 (first 5): tensor([-0.3319, -0.2173, 0.2051, -0.0843, 0.3042]) Calculating gamma for k=4: Number of diseases in cluster: 4.0 Base value (first 5): tensor([-8.8537, -8.8537, -8.8537, -8.8537, -8.8537]) Base value centered (first 5): tensor([-0.0117, -0.0117, -0.0117, -0.0117, -0.0117]) Base value centered mean: 1.6778946019258e-06 Gamma init for k=4 (first 5): tensor([ 0.0489, -0.0248, 0.0114, 0.0752, -0.0161]) Initializing with 5 disease states only Initialization complete! Model initialized successfully!
Training with Progress Tracking¶
In [ ]:
# Train the model
print("\n" + "="*70)
print("TRAINING MODEL")
print("="*70)
# Fit model
history = model.fit(
event_times=data['event_times'],
num_epochs=100,
learning_rate=1e-3,
lambda_reg=1e-2
)
print("\nTraining complete!")
====================================================================== TRAINING MODEL ======================================================================
/Users/sarahurbut/aladynoulli2/pyScripts_forPublish/clust_huge_amp_vectorized.py:238: UserWarning: To copy construct from a tensor, it is recommended to use sourceTensor.clone().detach() or sourceTensor.clone().detach().requires_grad_(True), rather than torch.tensor(sourceTensor). event_times_tensor = torch.tensor(event_times, dtype=torch.long)
Epoch 0 Loss: 36.8911 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.82): Theta for diagnosed: 0.204 ± 0.063 Theta for others: 0.165 Proportion difference: 0.039 Disease 2 (signature 0, LR=61.08): Theta for diagnosed: 0.282 ± 0.126 Theta for others: 0.185 Proportion difference: 0.097 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=57.08): Theta for diagnosed: 0.376 ± 0.264 Theta for others: 0.092 Proportion difference: 0.284 Disease 11 (signature 2, LR=56.65): Theta for diagnosed: 0.507 ± 0.277 Theta for others: 0.276 Proportion difference: 0.231 Disease 4 (signature 1, LR=56.31): Theta for diagnosed: 0.274 ± 0.104 Theta for others: 0.187 Proportion difference: 0.087 Epoch 1 Loss: 174.2320 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.82): Theta for diagnosed: 0.204 ± 0.060 Theta for others: 0.165 Proportion difference: 0.039 Disease 2 (signature 0, LR=61.01): Theta for diagnosed: 0.282 ± 0.124 Theta for others: 0.185 Proportion difference: 0.097 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=57.52): Theta for diagnosed: 0.377 ± 0.263 Theta for others: 0.092 Proportion difference: 0.284 Disease 11 (signature 2, LR=56.62): Theta for diagnosed: 0.507 ± 0.276 Theta for others: 0.276 Proportion difference: 0.231 Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=56.31): Theta for diagnosed: 0.166 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.110 Epoch 2 Loss: 49.3241 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.81): Theta for diagnosed: 0.204 ± 0.060 Theta for others: 0.165 Proportion difference: 0.039 Disease 2 (signature 0, LR=60.93): Theta for diagnosed: 0.281 ± 0.124 Theta for others: 0.185 Proportion difference: 0.096 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=57.90): Theta for diagnosed: 0.377 ± 0.263 Theta for others: 0.092 Proportion difference: 0.284 Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=56.72): Theta for diagnosed: 0.166 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.110 Disease 11 (signature 2, LR=56.60): Theta for diagnosed: 0.507 ± 0.277 Theta for others: 0.276 Proportion difference: 0.230 Epoch 3 Loss: 68.4091 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.81): Theta for diagnosed: 0.204 ± 0.061 Theta for others: 0.165 Proportion difference: 0.039 Disease 2 (signature 0, LR=60.94): Theta for diagnosed: 0.281 ± 0.125 Theta for others: 0.185 Proportion difference: 0.096 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=58.28): Theta for diagnosed: 0.377 ± 0.263 Theta for others: 0.093 Proportion difference: 0.284 Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=57.11): Theta for diagnosed: 0.167 ± 0.066 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.110 Disease 11 (signature 2, LR=56.59): Theta for diagnosed: 0.506 ± 0.277 Theta for others: 0.276 Proportion difference: 0.230 Epoch 4 Loss: 109.9122 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.82): Theta for diagnosed: 0.204 ± 0.061 Theta for others: 0.165 Proportion difference: 0.039 Disease 2 (signature 0, LR=60.99): Theta for diagnosed: 0.281 ± 0.125 Theta for others: 0.185 Proportion difference: 0.096 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=58.67): Theta for diagnosed: 0.377 ± 0.263 Theta for others: 0.092 Proportion difference: 0.284 Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=57.48): Theta for diagnosed: 0.167 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.110 Disease 11 (signature 2, LR=56.59): Theta for diagnosed: 0.506 ± 0.276 Theta for others: 0.276 Proportion difference: 0.230 Epoch 5 Loss: 90.2475 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.83): Theta for diagnosed: 0.204 ± 0.060 Theta for others: 0.165 Proportion difference: 0.039 Disease 2 (signature 0, LR=61.07): Theta for diagnosed: 0.281 ± 0.124 Theta for others: 0.185 Proportion difference: 0.097 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=59.06): Theta for diagnosed: 0.377 ± 0.263 Theta for others: 0.092 Proportion difference: 0.284 Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=57.84): Theta for diagnosed: 0.167 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.110 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=56.90): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.135 Proportion difference: 0.035 Epoch 6 Loss: 53.6617 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.85): Theta for diagnosed: 0.204 ± 0.060 Theta for others: 0.165 Proportion difference: 0.039 Disease 2 (signature 0, LR=61.13): Theta for diagnosed: 0.282 ± 0.124 Theta for others: 0.185 Proportion difference: 0.097 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=59.43): Theta for diagnosed: 0.377 ± 0.263 Theta for others: 0.092 Proportion difference: 0.284 Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=58.20): Theta for diagnosed: 0.167 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.110 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=57.29): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.135 Proportion difference: 0.035 Epoch 7 Loss: 40.3793 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.86): Theta for diagnosed: 0.204 ± 0.060 Theta for others: 0.165 Proportion difference: 0.039 Disease 2 (signature 0, LR=61.17): Theta for diagnosed: 0.282 ± 0.124 Theta for others: 0.185 Proportion difference: 0.097 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=59.80): Theta for diagnosed: 0.376 ± 0.263 Theta for others: 0.092 Proportion difference: 0.284 Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=58.56): Theta for diagnosed: 0.167 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.111 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=57.67): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.135 Proportion difference: 0.036 Epoch 8 Loss: 53.5571 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.86): Theta for diagnosed: 0.205 ± 0.061 Theta for others: 0.165 Proportion difference: 0.040 Disease 2 (signature 0, LR=61.19): Theta for diagnosed: 0.282 ± 0.124 Theta for others: 0.185 Proportion difference: 0.097 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=60.16): Theta for diagnosed: 0.376 ± 0.263 Theta for others: 0.092 Proportion difference: 0.284 Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=58.92): Theta for diagnosed: 0.167 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.111 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=58.07): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.135 Proportion difference: 0.036 Epoch 9 Loss: 68.0538 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.87): Theta for diagnosed: 0.205 ± 0.061 Theta for others: 0.165 Proportion difference: 0.040 Disease 2 (signature 0, LR=61.18): Theta for diagnosed: 0.282 ± 0.124 Theta for others: 0.185 Proportion difference: 0.097 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=60.50): Theta for diagnosed: 0.376 ± 0.263 Theta for others: 0.092 Proportion difference: 0.284 Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=59.29): Theta for diagnosed: 0.167 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.111 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=58.46): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.135 Proportion difference: 0.036 Epoch 10 Loss: 65.2098 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.87): Theta for diagnosed: 0.205 ± 0.060 Theta for others: 0.165 Proportion difference: 0.040 Disease 2 (signature 0, LR=61.17): Theta for diagnosed: 0.282 ± 0.124 Theta for others: 0.185 Proportion difference: 0.097 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=60.83): Theta for diagnosed: 0.376 ± 0.263 Theta for others: 0.092 Proportion difference: 0.284 Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=59.66): Theta for diagnosed: 0.167 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.111 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=58.86): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.135 Proportion difference: 0.036 Epoch 11 Loss: 50.2462 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.87): Theta for diagnosed: 0.205 ± 0.060 Theta for others: 0.165 Proportion difference: 0.040 Disease 2 (signature 0, LR=61.16): Theta for diagnosed: 0.281 ± 0.124 Theta for others: 0.185 Proportion difference: 0.097 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=61.14): Theta for diagnosed: 0.376 ± 0.263 Theta for others: 0.092 Proportion difference: 0.284 Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=60.03): Theta for diagnosed: 0.167 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.111 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=59.25): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.135 Proportion difference: 0.036 Epoch 12 Loss: 38.3002 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.87): Theta for diagnosed: 0.205 ± 0.060 Theta for others: 0.165 Proportion difference: 0.040 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=61.44): Theta for diagnosed: 0.376 ± 0.263 Theta for others: 0.092 Proportion difference: 0.284 Disease 2 (signature 0, LR=61.16): Theta for diagnosed: 0.281 ± 0.124 Theta for others: 0.185 Proportion difference: 0.097 Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=60.38): Theta for diagnosed: 0.167 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.111 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=59.63): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.135 Proportion difference: 0.036 Epoch 13 Loss: 37.9797 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.87): Theta for diagnosed: 0.205 ± 0.060 Theta for others: 0.165 Proportion difference: 0.040 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=61.72): Theta for diagnosed: 0.376 ± 0.263 Theta for others: 0.092 Proportion difference: 0.284 Disease 2 (signature 0, LR=61.16): Theta for diagnosed: 0.281 ± 0.124 Theta for others: 0.185 Proportion difference: 0.097 Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=60.72): Theta for diagnosed: 0.167 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.111 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=60.00): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.135 Proportion difference: 0.036 Epoch 14 Loss: 45.5525 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.87): Theta for diagnosed: 0.205 ± 0.060 Theta for others: 0.165 Proportion difference: 0.040 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=61.98): Theta for diagnosed: 0.376 ± 0.263 Theta for others: 0.092 Proportion difference: 0.284 Disease 2 (signature 0, LR=61.17): Theta for diagnosed: 0.281 ± 0.124 Theta for others: 0.185 Proportion difference: 0.097 Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=61.04): Theta for diagnosed: 0.167 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.111 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=60.36): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.135 Proportion difference: 0.036 Epoch 15 Loss: 50.8391 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.88): Theta for diagnosed: 0.205 ± 0.060 Theta for others: 0.165 Proportion difference: 0.040 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=62.22): Theta for diagnosed: 0.376 ± 0.262 Theta for others: 0.092 Proportion difference: 0.284 Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=61.36): Theta for diagnosed: 0.167 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.111 Disease 2 (signature 0, LR=61.17): Theta for diagnosed: 0.281 ± 0.124 Theta for others: 0.185 Proportion difference: 0.097 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=60.71): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.135 Proportion difference: 0.036 Epoch 16 Loss: 48.2365 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.88): Theta for diagnosed: 0.205 ± 0.060 Theta for others: 0.165 Proportion difference: 0.040 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=62.44): Theta for diagnosed: 0.376 ± 0.262 Theta for others: 0.092 Proportion difference: 0.284 Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=61.66): Theta for diagnosed: 0.167 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.111 Disease 2 (signature 0, LR=61.18): Theta for diagnosed: 0.281 ± 0.124 Theta for others: 0.184 Proportion difference: 0.097 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=61.05): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.135 Proportion difference: 0.036 Epoch 17 Loss: 40.8137 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.88): Theta for diagnosed: 0.205 ± 0.060 Theta for others: 0.165 Proportion difference: 0.040 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=62.64): Theta for diagnosed: 0.376 ± 0.262 Theta for others: 0.092 Proportion difference: 0.284 Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=61.95): Theta for diagnosed: 0.167 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.111 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=61.38): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.135 Proportion difference: 0.036 Disease 2 (signature 0, LR=61.17): Theta for diagnosed: 0.281 ± 0.124 Theta for others: 0.184 Proportion difference: 0.097 Epoch 18 Loss: 35.3246 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.88): Theta for diagnosed: 0.206 ± 0.060 Theta for others: 0.165 Proportion difference: 0.040 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=62.81): Theta for diagnosed: 0.376 ± 0.262 Theta for others: 0.092 Proportion difference: 0.284 Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=62.23): Theta for diagnosed: 0.167 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.111 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=61.69): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.135 Proportion difference: 0.036 Disease 2 (signature 0, LR=61.15): Theta for diagnosed: 0.281 ± 0.124 Theta for others: 0.184 Proportion difference: 0.097 Epoch 19 Loss: 35.4420 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.87): Theta for diagnosed: 0.206 ± 0.060 Theta for others: 0.165 Proportion difference: 0.040 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=62.96): Theta for diagnosed: 0.376 ± 0.262 Theta for others: 0.092 Proportion difference: 0.284 Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=62.50): Theta for diagnosed: 0.167 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.111 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=61.99): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.135 Proportion difference: 0.036 Disease 2 (signature 0, LR=61.13): Theta for diagnosed: 0.281 ± 0.124 Theta for others: 0.184 Proportion difference: 0.097 Epoch 20 Loss: 39.1136 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.86): Theta for diagnosed: 0.206 ± 0.061 Theta for others: 0.165 Proportion difference: 0.040 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=63.09): Theta for diagnosed: 0.376 ± 0.262 Theta for others: 0.092 Proportion difference: 0.284 Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=62.77): Theta for diagnosed: 0.167 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.111 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=62.27): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.134 Proportion difference: 0.036 Disease 2 (signature 0, LR=61.10): Theta for diagnosed: 0.281 ± 0.124 Theta for others: 0.184 Proportion difference: 0.097 Epoch 21 Loss: 41.4913 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.85): Theta for diagnosed: 0.206 ± 0.061 Theta for others: 0.166 Proportion difference: 0.040 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=63.20): Theta for diagnosed: 0.375 ± 0.262 Theta for others: 0.092 Proportion difference: 0.284 Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=63.02): Theta for diagnosed: 0.167 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.111 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=62.55): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.134 Proportion difference: 0.036 Disease 2 (signature 0, LR=61.06): Theta for diagnosed: 0.281 ± 0.124 Theta for others: 0.184 Proportion difference: 0.097 Epoch 22 Loss: 40.0129 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.84): Theta for diagnosed: 0.206 ± 0.061 Theta for others: 0.166 Proportion difference: 0.041 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=63.29): Theta for diagnosed: 0.375 ± 0.262 Theta for others: 0.092 Proportion difference: 0.284 Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=63.27): Theta for diagnosed: 0.167 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.111 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=62.82): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.134 Proportion difference: 0.037 Disease 2 (signature 0, LR=61.01): Theta for diagnosed: 0.281 ± 0.124 Theta for others: 0.184 Proportion difference: 0.097 Epoch 23 Loss: 36.3076 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.83): Theta for diagnosed: 0.206 ± 0.061 Theta for others: 0.166 Proportion difference: 0.041 Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=63.50): Theta for diagnosed: 0.167 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.111 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=63.37): Theta for diagnosed: 0.375 ± 0.262 Theta for others: 0.092 Proportion difference: 0.284 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=63.07): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.134 Proportion difference: 0.037 Disease 2 (signature 0, LR=60.97): Theta for diagnosed: 0.281 ± 0.124 Theta for others: 0.184 Proportion difference: 0.097 Epoch 24 Loss: 33.7810 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.82): Theta for diagnosed: 0.206 ± 0.061 Theta for others: 0.166 Proportion difference: 0.041 Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=63.71): Theta for diagnosed: 0.167 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.111 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=63.43): Theta for diagnosed: 0.375 ± 0.262 Theta for others: 0.092 Proportion difference: 0.284 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=63.31): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.134 Proportion difference: 0.037 Disease 2 (signature 0, LR=60.91): Theta for diagnosed: 0.281 ± 0.124 Theta for others: 0.184 Proportion difference: 0.097 Epoch 25 Loss: 34.1027 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=63.91): Theta for diagnosed: 0.167 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.111 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.81): Theta for diagnosed: 0.206 ± 0.061 Theta for others: 0.166 Proportion difference: 0.041 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=63.54): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.134 Proportion difference: 0.037 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=63.48): Theta for diagnosed: 0.375 ± 0.262 Theta for others: 0.092 Proportion difference: 0.283 Disease 2 (signature 0, LR=60.86): Theta for diagnosed: 0.281 ± 0.124 Theta for others: 0.184 Proportion difference: 0.097 Epoch 26 Loss: 35.9472 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=64.10): Theta for diagnosed: 0.167 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.111 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.80): Theta for diagnosed: 0.207 ± 0.061 Theta for others: 0.166 Proportion difference: 0.041 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=63.75): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.134 Proportion difference: 0.037 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=63.51): Theta for diagnosed: 0.375 ± 0.262 Theta for others: 0.092 Proportion difference: 0.283 Disease 2 (signature 0, LR=60.80): Theta for diagnosed: 0.281 ± 0.123 Theta for others: 0.184 Proportion difference: 0.097 Epoch 27 Loss: 36.8005 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=64.28): Theta for diagnosed: 0.167 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.111 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=63.95): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.134 Proportion difference: 0.037 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.79): Theta for diagnosed: 0.207 ± 0.061 Theta for others: 0.166 Proportion difference: 0.041 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=63.52): Theta for diagnosed: 0.375 ± 0.261 Theta for others: 0.092 Proportion difference: 0.283 Disease 2 (signature 0, LR=60.74): Theta for diagnosed: 0.281 ± 0.123 Theta for others: 0.184 Proportion difference: 0.097 Epoch 28 Loss: 35.6394 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=64.45): Theta for diagnosed: 0.167 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.111 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=64.13): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.134 Proportion difference: 0.037 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.78): Theta for diagnosed: 0.207 ± 0.061 Theta for others: 0.166 Proportion difference: 0.041 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=63.52): Theta for diagnosed: 0.375 ± 0.261 Theta for others: 0.091 Proportion difference: 0.283 Disease 2 (signature 0, LR=60.67): Theta for diagnosed: 0.282 ± 0.123 Theta for others: 0.184 Proportion difference: 0.098 Epoch 29 Loss: 33.6519 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=64.60): Theta for diagnosed: 0.167 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.111 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=64.30): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.134 Proportion difference: 0.037 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.77): Theta for diagnosed: 0.207 ± 0.061 Theta for others: 0.166 Proportion difference: 0.041 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=63.51): Theta for diagnosed: 0.375 ± 0.261 Theta for others: 0.091 Proportion difference: 0.283 Disease 2 (signature 0, LR=60.60): Theta for diagnosed: 0.282 ± 0.123 Theta for others: 0.184 Proportion difference: 0.098 Epoch 30 Loss: 32.6495 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=64.75): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.111 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=64.45): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.134 Proportion difference: 0.037 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.76): Theta for diagnosed: 0.207 ± 0.061 Theta for others: 0.166 Proportion difference: 0.041 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=63.48): Theta for diagnosed: 0.375 ± 0.261 Theta for others: 0.091 Proportion difference: 0.283 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=60.56): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.080 Theta for others: 0.132 Proportion difference: 0.035 Epoch 31 Loss: 33.1584 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=64.90): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.111 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=64.60): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.134 Proportion difference: 0.037 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.74): Theta for diagnosed: 0.207 ± 0.061 Theta for others: 0.166 Proportion difference: 0.042 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=63.45): Theta for diagnosed: 0.374 ± 0.261 Theta for others: 0.091 Proportion difference: 0.283 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=60.71): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.080 Theta for others: 0.132 Proportion difference: 0.036 Epoch 32 Loss: 34.1069 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=65.03): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.111 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=64.74): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.134 Proportion difference: 0.038 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.72): Theta for diagnosed: 0.208 ± 0.061 Theta for others: 0.166 Proportion difference: 0.042 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=63.40): Theta for diagnosed: 0.374 ± 0.261 Theta for others: 0.091 Proportion difference: 0.283 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=60.85): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.080 Theta for others: 0.132 Proportion difference: 0.036 Epoch 33 Loss: 34.1887 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=65.16): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.111 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=64.86): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.134 Proportion difference: 0.038 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.69): Theta for diagnosed: 0.208 ± 0.061 Theta for others: 0.166 Proportion difference: 0.042 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=63.35): Theta for diagnosed: 0.374 ± 0.261 Theta for others: 0.091 Proportion difference: 0.283 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=60.99): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.080 Theta for others: 0.132 Proportion difference: 0.036 Epoch 34 Loss: 33.2491 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=65.28): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.111 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=64.98): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.134 Proportion difference: 0.038 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.67): Theta for diagnosed: 0.208 ± 0.061 Theta for others: 0.166 Proportion difference: 0.042 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=63.28): Theta for diagnosed: 0.374 ± 0.261 Theta for others: 0.091 Proportion difference: 0.283 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=61.12): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.080 Theta for others: 0.132 Proportion difference: 0.036 Epoch 35 Loss: 32.2364 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=65.40): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.111 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=65.09): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.134 Proportion difference: 0.038 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.65): Theta for diagnosed: 0.208 ± 0.062 Theta for others: 0.166 Proportion difference: 0.042 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=63.21): Theta for diagnosed: 0.374 ± 0.261 Theta for others: 0.091 Proportion difference: 0.283 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=61.24): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.080 Theta for others: 0.132 Proportion difference: 0.036 Epoch 36 Loss: 32.0171 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=65.51): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.111 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=65.19): Theta for diagnosed: 0.172 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.133 Proportion difference: 0.038 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.62): Theta for diagnosed: 0.208 ± 0.062 Theta for others: 0.166 Proportion difference: 0.042 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=63.14): Theta for diagnosed: 0.374 ± 0.261 Theta for others: 0.091 Proportion difference: 0.283 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=61.36): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.080 Theta for others: 0.132 Proportion difference: 0.036 Epoch 37 Loss: 32.4777 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=65.61): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.112 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=65.28): Theta for diagnosed: 0.172 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.133 Proportion difference: 0.038 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.60): Theta for diagnosed: 0.208 ± 0.062 Theta for others: 0.166 Proportion difference: 0.042 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=63.06): Theta for diagnosed: 0.374 ± 0.261 Theta for others: 0.091 Proportion difference: 0.283 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=61.47): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.080 Theta for others: 0.132 Proportion difference: 0.036 Epoch 38 Loss: 32.8135 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=65.71): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.112 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=65.37): Theta for diagnosed: 0.172 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.133 Proportion difference: 0.038 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.58): Theta for diagnosed: 0.209 ± 0.062 Theta for others: 0.166 Proportion difference: 0.042 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=62.98): Theta for diagnosed: 0.374 ± 0.261 Theta for others: 0.091 Proportion difference: 0.283 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=61.58): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.080 Theta for others: 0.132 Proportion difference: 0.036 Epoch 39 Loss: 32.5168 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=65.81): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.066 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.112 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=65.45): Theta for diagnosed: 0.172 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.133 Proportion difference: 0.038 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.56): Theta for diagnosed: 0.209 ± 0.062 Theta for others: 0.166 Proportion difference: 0.043 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=62.89): Theta for diagnosed: 0.374 ± 0.261 Theta for others: 0.091 Proportion difference: 0.283 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=61.69): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.080 Theta for others: 0.131 Proportion difference: 0.037 Epoch 40 Loss: 31.8747 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=65.90): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.066 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.112 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=65.52): Theta for diagnosed: 0.172 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.133 Proportion difference: 0.039 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.53): Theta for diagnosed: 0.209 ± 0.062 Theta for others: 0.166 Proportion difference: 0.043 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=62.81): Theta for diagnosed: 0.374 ± 0.260 Theta for others: 0.091 Proportion difference: 0.283 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=61.79): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.080 Theta for others: 0.131 Proportion difference: 0.037 Epoch 41 Loss: 31.5104 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=65.99): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.066 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.112 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=65.59): Theta for diagnosed: 0.172 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.133 Proportion difference: 0.039 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.50): Theta for diagnosed: 0.209 ± 0.062 Theta for others: 0.166 Proportion difference: 0.043 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=62.72): Theta for diagnosed: 0.373 ± 0.260 Theta for others: 0.091 Proportion difference: 0.283 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=61.88): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.080 Theta for others: 0.131 Proportion difference: 0.037 Epoch 42 Loss: 31.6325 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=66.08): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.066 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.112 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=65.66): Theta for diagnosed: 0.172 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.133 Proportion difference: 0.039 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.48): Theta for diagnosed: 0.209 ± 0.062 Theta for others: 0.166 Proportion difference: 0.043 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=62.63): Theta for diagnosed: 0.373 ± 0.260 Theta for others: 0.091 Proportion difference: 0.283 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=61.97): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.080 Theta for others: 0.131 Proportion difference: 0.037 Epoch 43 Loss: 31.8734 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=66.17): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.066 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.112 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=65.72): Theta for diagnosed: 0.172 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.133 Proportion difference: 0.039 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.45): Theta for diagnosed: 0.210 ± 0.063 Theta for others: 0.166 Proportion difference: 0.043 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=62.55): Theta for diagnosed: 0.373 ± 0.260 Theta for others: 0.090 Proportion difference: 0.283 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=62.06): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.080 Theta for others: 0.131 Proportion difference: 0.037 Epoch 44 Loss: 31.8070 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=66.26): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.066 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.112 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=65.79): Theta for diagnosed: 0.172 ± 0.082 Theta for others: 0.133 Proportion difference: 0.039 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.42): Theta for diagnosed: 0.210 ± 0.063 Theta for others: 0.166 Proportion difference: 0.043 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=62.46): Theta for diagnosed: 0.373 ± 0.260 Theta for others: 0.090 Proportion difference: 0.283 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=62.15): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.080 Theta for others: 0.131 Proportion difference: 0.038 Epoch 45 Loss: 31.4459 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=66.35): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.066 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.112 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=65.84): Theta for diagnosed: 0.172 ± 0.082 Theta for others: 0.133 Proportion difference: 0.039 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.39): Theta for diagnosed: 0.210 ± 0.063 Theta for others: 0.166 Proportion difference: 0.044 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=62.38): Theta for diagnosed: 0.373 ± 0.260 Theta for others: 0.090 Proportion difference: 0.283 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=62.24): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.080 Theta for others: 0.131 Proportion difference: 0.038 Epoch 46 Loss: 31.1479 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=66.44): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.066 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.112 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=65.90): Theta for diagnosed: 0.172 ± 0.082 Theta for others: 0.132 Proportion difference: 0.039 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.36): Theta for diagnosed: 0.210 ± 0.063 Theta for others: 0.167 Proportion difference: 0.044 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=62.32): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.080 Theta for others: 0.130 Proportion difference: 0.038 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=62.30): Theta for diagnosed: 0.373 ± 0.260 Theta for others: 0.090 Proportion difference: 0.283 Epoch 47 Loss: 31.1377 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=66.53): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.066 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.112 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=65.96): Theta for diagnosed: 0.172 ± 0.082 Theta for others: 0.132 Proportion difference: 0.040 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.32): Theta for diagnosed: 0.210 ± 0.063 Theta for others: 0.167 Proportion difference: 0.044 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=62.41): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.080 Theta for others: 0.130 Proportion difference: 0.038 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=62.22): Theta for diagnosed: 0.373 ± 0.260 Theta for others: 0.090 Proportion difference: 0.283 Epoch 48 Loss: 31.2659 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=66.62): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.066 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.112 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=66.01): Theta for diagnosed: 0.172 ± 0.082 Theta for others: 0.132 Proportion difference: 0.040 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.29): Theta for diagnosed: 0.211 ± 0.063 Theta for others: 0.167 Proportion difference: 0.044 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=62.49): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.080 Theta for others: 0.130 Proportion difference: 0.038 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=62.14): Theta for diagnosed: 0.373 ± 0.260 Theta for others: 0.090 Proportion difference: 0.283 Epoch 49 Loss: 31.2511 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=66.71): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.066 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.112 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=66.07): Theta for diagnosed: 0.172 ± 0.082 Theta for others: 0.132 Proportion difference: 0.040 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.26): Theta for diagnosed: 0.211 ± 0.064 Theta for others: 0.167 Proportion difference: 0.044 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=62.57): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.080 Theta for others: 0.130 Proportion difference: 0.038 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=62.07): Theta for diagnosed: 0.373 ± 0.260 Theta for others: 0.090 Proportion difference: 0.283 Epoch 50 Loss: 31.0400 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=66.81): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.066 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.112 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=66.13): Theta for diagnosed: 0.172 ± 0.082 Theta for others: 0.132 Proportion difference: 0.040 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.23): Theta for diagnosed: 0.211 ± 0.064 Theta for others: 0.167 Proportion difference: 0.044 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=62.66): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.080 Theta for others: 0.130 Proportion difference: 0.039 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=62.00): Theta for diagnosed: 0.372 ± 0.260 Theta for others: 0.090 Proportion difference: 0.283 Epoch 51 Loss: 30.8307 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=66.90): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.066 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.112 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=66.18): Theta for diagnosed: 0.172 ± 0.082 Theta for others: 0.132 Proportion difference: 0.040 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.19): Theta for diagnosed: 0.211 ± 0.064 Theta for others: 0.167 Proportion difference: 0.045 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=62.74): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.130 Proportion difference: 0.039 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=61.93): Theta for diagnosed: 0.372 ± 0.260 Theta for others: 0.090 Proportion difference: 0.282 Epoch 52 Loss: 30.7870 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=67.00): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.067 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.112 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=66.24): Theta for diagnosed: 0.172 ± 0.082 Theta for others: 0.132 Proportion difference: 0.040 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.16): Theta for diagnosed: 0.211 ± 0.064 Theta for others: 0.167 Proportion difference: 0.045 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=62.83): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.129 Proportion difference: 0.039 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=61.87): Theta for diagnosed: 0.372 ± 0.260 Theta for others: 0.090 Proportion difference: 0.282 Epoch 53 Loss: 30.8430 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=67.10): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.067 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.112 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=66.30): Theta for diagnosed: 0.172 ± 0.082 Theta for others: 0.132 Proportion difference: 0.041 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.12): Theta for diagnosed: 0.212 ± 0.064 Theta for others: 0.167 Proportion difference: 0.045 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=62.92): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.129 Proportion difference: 0.039 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=61.81): Theta for diagnosed: 0.372 ± 0.259 Theta for others: 0.090 Proportion difference: 0.282 Epoch 54 Loss: 30.8255 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=67.21): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.067 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.112 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=66.36): Theta for diagnosed: 0.172 ± 0.082 Theta for others: 0.131 Proportion difference: 0.041 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.09): Theta for diagnosed: 0.212 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.167 Proportion difference: 0.045 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=63.01): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.129 Proportion difference: 0.039 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=61.76): Theta for diagnosed: 0.372 ± 0.259 Theta for others: 0.090 Proportion difference: 0.282 Epoch 55 Loss: 30.6884 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=67.32): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.067 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.112 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=66.43): Theta for diagnosed: 0.172 ± 0.082 Theta for others: 0.131 Proportion difference: 0.041 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=63.10): Theta for diagnosed: 0.168 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.129 Proportion difference: 0.039 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.05): Theta for diagnosed: 0.212 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.167 Proportion difference: 0.045 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=61.71): Theta for diagnosed: 0.372 ± 0.259 Theta for others: 0.090 Proportion difference: 0.282 Epoch 56 Loss: 30.5477 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=67.43): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.067 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.113 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=66.49): Theta for diagnosed: 0.172 ± 0.082 Theta for others: 0.131 Proportion difference: 0.041 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=63.19): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.129 Proportion difference: 0.040 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=63.02): Theta for diagnosed: 0.212 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.167 Proportion difference: 0.045 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=61.67): Theta for diagnosed: 0.372 ± 0.259 Theta for others: 0.089 Proportion difference: 0.282 Epoch 57 Loss: 30.5050 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=67.55): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.067 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.113 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=66.56): Theta for diagnosed: 0.172 ± 0.082 Theta for others: 0.131 Proportion difference: 0.041 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=63.29): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.129 Proportion difference: 0.040 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=62.98): Theta for diagnosed: 0.213 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.167 Proportion difference: 0.046 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=61.63): Theta for diagnosed: 0.372 ± 0.259 Theta for others: 0.089 Proportion difference: 0.282 Epoch 58 Loss: 30.5205 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=67.66): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.067 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.113 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=66.64): Theta for diagnosed: 0.172 ± 0.082 Theta for others: 0.131 Proportion difference: 0.041 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=63.39): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.129 Proportion difference: 0.040 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=62.94): Theta for diagnosed: 0.213 ± 0.065 Theta for others: 0.167 Proportion difference: 0.046 Disease 9 (signature 2, LR=61.60): Theta for diagnosed: 0.372 ± 0.259 Theta for others: 0.089 Proportion difference: 0.282 Epoch 59 Loss: 30.4890 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=67.79): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.067 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.113 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=66.71): Theta for diagnosed: 0.172 ± 0.083 Theta for others: 0.131 Proportion difference: 0.042 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=63.49): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.128 Proportion difference: 0.040 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=62.90): Theta for diagnosed: 0.213 ± 0.066 Theta for others: 0.167 Proportion difference: 0.046 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=61.60): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.067 Theta for others: 0.121 Proportion difference: 0.048 Epoch 60 Loss: 30.3885 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=67.91): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.067 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.113 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=66.79): Theta for diagnosed: 0.173 ± 0.083 Theta for others: 0.131 Proportion difference: 0.042 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=63.59): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.128 Proportion difference: 0.040 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=62.86): Theta for diagnosed: 0.213 ± 0.066 Theta for others: 0.167 Proportion difference: 0.046 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=61.76): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.067 Theta for others: 0.121 Proportion difference: 0.048 Epoch 61 Loss: 30.2934 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=68.04): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.067 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.113 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=66.87): Theta for diagnosed: 0.173 ± 0.083 Theta for others: 0.131 Proportion difference: 0.042 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=63.70): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.128 Proportion difference: 0.041 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=62.82): Theta for diagnosed: 0.214 ± 0.066 Theta for others: 0.167 Proportion difference: 0.046 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=61.91): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.068 Theta for others: 0.121 Proportion difference: 0.048 Epoch 62 Loss: 30.2591 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=68.18): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.068 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.113 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=66.95): Theta for diagnosed: 0.173 ± 0.083 Theta for others: 0.130 Proportion difference: 0.042 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=63.81): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.081 Theta for others: 0.128 Proportion difference: 0.041 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=62.79): Theta for diagnosed: 0.214 ± 0.067 Theta for others: 0.167 Proportion difference: 0.047 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=62.07): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.068 Theta for others: 0.121 Proportion difference: 0.049 Epoch 63 Loss: 30.2515 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=68.32): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.068 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.113 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=67.04): Theta for diagnosed: 0.173 ± 0.083 Theta for others: 0.130 Proportion difference: 0.042 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=63.92): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.082 Theta for others: 0.128 Proportion difference: 0.041 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=62.75): Theta for diagnosed: 0.214 ± 0.067 Theta for others: 0.167 Proportion difference: 0.047 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=62.23): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.068 Theta for others: 0.121 Proportion difference: 0.049 Epoch 64 Loss: 30.2087 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=68.46): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.068 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.113 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=67.13): Theta for diagnosed: 0.173 ± 0.083 Theta for others: 0.130 Proportion difference: 0.042 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=64.04): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.082 Theta for others: 0.128 Proportion difference: 0.041 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=62.71): Theta for diagnosed: 0.214 ± 0.067 Theta for others: 0.167 Proportion difference: 0.047 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=62.39): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.068 Theta for others: 0.121 Proportion difference: 0.049 Epoch 65 Loss: 30.1294 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=68.61): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.068 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.113 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=67.23): Theta for diagnosed: 0.173 ± 0.083 Theta for others: 0.130 Proportion difference: 0.043 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=64.16): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.082 Theta for others: 0.127 Proportion difference: 0.041 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=62.66): Theta for diagnosed: 0.214 ± 0.067 Theta for others: 0.167 Proportion difference: 0.047 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=62.55): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.068 Theta for others: 0.121 Proportion difference: 0.049 Epoch 66 Loss: 30.0635 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=68.76): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.068 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.113 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=67.32): Theta for diagnosed: 0.173 ± 0.083 Theta for others: 0.130 Proportion difference: 0.043 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=64.28): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.082 Theta for others: 0.127 Proportion difference: 0.042 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=62.71): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.068 Theta for others: 0.120 Proportion difference: 0.049 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=62.62): Theta for diagnosed: 0.215 ± 0.068 Theta for others: 0.167 Proportion difference: 0.047 Epoch 67 Loss: 30.0345 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=68.91): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.068 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.113 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=67.42): Theta for diagnosed: 0.173 ± 0.083 Theta for others: 0.130 Proportion difference: 0.043 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=64.41): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.082 Theta for others: 0.127 Proportion difference: 0.042 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=62.88): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.068 Theta for others: 0.120 Proportion difference: 0.049 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=62.58): Theta for diagnosed: 0.215 ± 0.068 Theta for others: 0.167 Proportion difference: 0.047 Epoch 68 Loss: 30.0119 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=69.07): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.068 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.113 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=67.53): Theta for diagnosed: 0.173 ± 0.083 Theta for others: 0.130 Proportion difference: 0.043 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=64.54): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.082 Theta for others: 0.127 Proportion difference: 0.042 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=63.04): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.069 Theta for others: 0.120 Proportion difference: 0.050 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=62.54): Theta for diagnosed: 0.215 ± 0.068 Theta for others: 0.168 Proportion difference: 0.048 Epoch 69 Loss: 29.9632 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=69.23): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.069 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.113 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=67.64): Theta for diagnosed: 0.173 ± 0.084 Theta for others: 0.130 Proportion difference: 0.043 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=64.67): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.082 Theta for others: 0.127 Proportion difference: 0.042 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=63.21): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.069 Theta for others: 0.120 Proportion difference: 0.050 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=62.50): Theta for diagnosed: 0.215 ± 0.068 Theta for others: 0.168 Proportion difference: 0.048 Epoch 70 Loss: 29.8992 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=69.39): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.069 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.113 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=67.75): Theta for diagnosed: 0.173 ± 0.084 Theta for others: 0.129 Proportion difference: 0.044 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=64.80): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.082 Theta for others: 0.127 Proportion difference: 0.042 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=63.38): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.069 Theta for others: 0.120 Proportion difference: 0.050 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=62.46): Theta for diagnosed: 0.216 ± 0.069 Theta for others: 0.168 Proportion difference: 0.048 Epoch 71 Loss: 29.8513 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=69.56): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.069 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.113 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=67.86): Theta for diagnosed: 0.173 ± 0.084 Theta for others: 0.129 Proportion difference: 0.044 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=64.94): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.082 Theta for others: 0.126 Proportion difference: 0.043 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=63.55): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.069 Theta for others: 0.120 Proportion difference: 0.050 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=62.41): Theta for diagnosed: 0.216 ± 0.069 Theta for others: 0.168 Proportion difference: 0.048 Epoch 72 Loss: 29.8229 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=69.74): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.069 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.114 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=67.98): Theta for diagnosed: 0.173 ± 0.084 Theta for others: 0.129 Proportion difference: 0.044 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=65.08): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.082 Theta for others: 0.126 Proportion difference: 0.043 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=63.72): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.069 Theta for others: 0.120 Proportion difference: 0.050 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=62.37): Theta for diagnosed: 0.216 ± 0.069 Theta for others: 0.168 Proportion difference: 0.049 Epoch 73 Loss: 29.7901 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=69.91): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.069 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.114 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=68.09): Theta for diagnosed: 0.173 ± 0.084 Theta for others: 0.129 Proportion difference: 0.044 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=65.22): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.083 Theta for others: 0.126 Proportion difference: 0.043 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=63.89): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.069 Theta for others: 0.120 Proportion difference: 0.051 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=62.33): Theta for diagnosed: 0.216 ± 0.070 Theta for others: 0.168 Proportion difference: 0.049 Epoch 74 Loss: 29.7403 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=70.09): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.069 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.114 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=68.22): Theta for diagnosed: 0.173 ± 0.084 Theta for others: 0.129 Proportion difference: 0.044 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=65.36): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.083 Theta for others: 0.126 Proportion difference: 0.043 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=64.06): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.069 Theta for others: 0.119 Proportion difference: 0.051 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=62.28): Theta for diagnosed: 0.217 ± 0.070 Theta for others: 0.168 Proportion difference: 0.049 Epoch 75 Loss: 29.6886 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=70.27): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.069 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.114 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=68.34): Theta for diagnosed: 0.173 ± 0.084 Theta for others: 0.129 Proportion difference: 0.044 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=65.51): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.083 Theta for others: 0.126 Proportion difference: 0.043 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=64.24): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.070 Theta for others: 0.119 Proportion difference: 0.051 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=62.24): Theta for diagnosed: 0.217 ± 0.070 Theta for others: 0.168 Proportion difference: 0.049 Epoch 76 Loss: 29.6506 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=70.46): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.070 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.114 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=68.47): Theta for diagnosed: 0.173 ± 0.084 Theta for others: 0.129 Proportion difference: 0.045 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=65.66): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.083 Theta for others: 0.126 Proportion difference: 0.044 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=64.41): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.070 Theta for others: 0.119 Proportion difference: 0.051 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=62.19): Theta for diagnosed: 0.217 ± 0.071 Theta for others: 0.168 Proportion difference: 0.049 Epoch 77 Loss: 29.6196 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=70.65): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.070 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.114 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=68.60): Theta for diagnosed: 0.173 ± 0.084 Theta for others: 0.128 Proportion difference: 0.045 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=65.81): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.083 Theta for others: 0.125 Proportion difference: 0.044 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=64.59): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.070 Theta for others: 0.119 Proportion difference: 0.051 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=62.15): Theta for diagnosed: 0.218 ± 0.071 Theta for others: 0.168 Proportion difference: 0.050 Epoch 78 Loss: 29.5805 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=70.84): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.070 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.114 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=68.73): Theta for diagnosed: 0.173 ± 0.085 Theta for others: 0.128 Proportion difference: 0.045 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=65.97): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.083 Theta for others: 0.125 Proportion difference: 0.044 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=64.77): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.070 Theta for others: 0.119 Proportion difference: 0.052 Disease 19 (signature 4, LR=62.10): Theta for diagnosed: 0.218 ± 0.071 Theta for others: 0.168 Proportion difference: 0.050 Epoch 79 Loss: 29.5335 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=71.03): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.070 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.114 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=68.86): Theta for diagnosed: 0.173 ± 0.085 Theta for others: 0.128 Proportion difference: 0.045 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=66.12): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.083 Theta for others: 0.125 Proportion difference: 0.044 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=64.95): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.070 Theta for others: 0.119 Proportion difference: 0.052 Disease 7 (signature 1, LR=62.28): Theta for diagnosed: 0.190 ± 0.113 Theta for others: nan Proportion difference: nan Epoch 80 Loss: 29.4910 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=71.23): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.070 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.114 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=68.99): Theta for diagnosed: 0.173 ± 0.085 Theta for others: 0.128 Proportion difference: 0.045 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=66.28): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.083 Theta for others: 0.125 Proportion difference: 0.044 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=65.13): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.070 Theta for others: 0.119 Proportion difference: 0.052 Disease 7 (signature 1, LR=62.48): Theta for diagnosed: 0.190 ± 0.114 Theta for others: nan Proportion difference: nan Epoch 81 Loss: 29.4569 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=71.43): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.070 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.114 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=69.13): Theta for diagnosed: 0.173 ± 0.085 Theta for others: 0.128 Proportion difference: 0.046 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=66.44): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.084 Theta for others: 0.125 Proportion difference: 0.045 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=65.30): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.071 Theta for others: 0.118 Proportion difference: 0.052 Disease 7 (signature 1, LR=62.68): Theta for diagnosed: 0.191 ± 0.114 Theta for others: nan Proportion difference: nan Epoch 82 Loss: 29.4221 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=71.63): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.071 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.114 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=69.27): Theta for diagnosed: 0.174 ± 0.085 Theta for others: 0.128 Proportion difference: 0.046 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=66.61): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.084 Theta for others: 0.125 Proportion difference: 0.045 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=65.48): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.071 Theta for others: 0.118 Proportion difference: 0.052 Disease 7 (signature 1, LR=62.89): Theta for diagnosed: 0.191 ± 0.114 Theta for others: nan Proportion difference: nan Epoch 83 Loss: 29.3808 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=71.83): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.071 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.114 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=69.41): Theta for diagnosed: 0.174 ± 0.085 Theta for others: 0.128 Proportion difference: 0.046 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=66.77): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.084 Theta for others: 0.124 Proportion difference: 0.045 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=65.67): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.071 Theta for others: 0.118 Proportion difference: 0.053 Disease 7 (signature 1, LR=63.09): Theta for diagnosed: 0.191 ± 0.114 Theta for others: nan Proportion difference: nan Epoch 84 Loss: 29.3385 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=72.04): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.071 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.114 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=69.55): Theta for diagnosed: 0.174 ± 0.085 Theta for others: 0.127 Proportion difference: 0.046 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=66.94): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.084 Theta for others: 0.124 Proportion difference: 0.045 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=65.85): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.071 Theta for others: 0.118 Proportion difference: 0.053 Disease 7 (signature 1, LR=63.30): Theta for diagnosed: 0.191 ± 0.114 Theta for others: nan Proportion difference: nan Epoch 85 Loss: 29.3017 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=72.25): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.071 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.114 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=69.69): Theta for diagnosed: 0.174 ± 0.086 Theta for others: 0.127 Proportion difference: 0.046 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=67.11): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.084 Theta for others: 0.124 Proportion difference: 0.045 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=66.03): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.071 Theta for others: 0.118 Proportion difference: 0.053 Disease 7 (signature 1, LR=63.51): Theta for diagnosed: 0.191 ± 0.114 Theta for others: nan Proportion difference: nan Epoch 86 Loss: 29.2676 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=72.46): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.071 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.114 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=69.84): Theta for diagnosed: 0.174 ± 0.086 Theta for others: 0.127 Proportion difference: 0.047 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=67.28): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.084 Theta for others: 0.124 Proportion difference: 0.046 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=66.21): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.072 Theta for others: 0.118 Proportion difference: 0.053 Disease 7 (signature 1, LR=63.72): Theta for diagnosed: 0.191 ± 0.115 Theta for others: nan Proportion difference: nan Epoch 87 Loss: 29.2301 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=72.67): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.072 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.115 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=69.98): Theta for diagnosed: 0.174 ± 0.086 Theta for others: 0.127 Proportion difference: 0.047 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=67.45): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.084 Theta for others: 0.124 Proportion difference: 0.046 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=66.39): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.072 Theta for others: 0.118 Proportion difference: 0.053 Disease 7 (signature 1, LR=63.93): Theta for diagnosed: 0.191 ± 0.115 Theta for others: nan Proportion difference: nan Epoch 88 Loss: 29.1899 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=72.88): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.072 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.115 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=70.13): Theta for diagnosed: 0.174 ± 0.086 Theta for others: 0.127 Proportion difference: 0.047 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=67.62): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.085 Theta for others: 0.124 Proportion difference: 0.046 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=66.58): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.072 Theta for others: 0.117 Proportion difference: 0.054 Disease 7 (signature 1, LR=64.15): Theta for diagnosed: 0.191 ± 0.115 Theta for others: nan Proportion difference: nan Epoch 89 Loss: 29.1521 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=73.10): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.072 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.115 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=70.27): Theta for diagnosed: 0.174 ± 0.086 Theta for others: 0.127 Proportion difference: 0.047 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=67.80): Theta for diagnosed: 0.169 ± 0.085 Theta for others: 0.123 Proportion difference: 0.046 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=66.76): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.072 Theta for others: 0.117 Proportion difference: 0.054 Disease 7 (signature 1, LR=64.36): Theta for diagnosed: 0.191 ± 0.115 Theta for others: nan Proportion difference: nan Epoch 90 Loss: 29.1174 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=73.31): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.072 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.115 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=70.42): Theta for diagnosed: 0.174 ± 0.086 Theta for others: 0.127 Proportion difference: 0.047 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=67.97): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.085 Theta for others: 0.123 Proportion difference: 0.046 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=66.94): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.072 Theta for others: 0.117 Proportion difference: 0.054 Disease 7 (signature 1, LR=64.58): Theta for diagnosed: 0.191 ± 0.115 Theta for others: nan Proportion difference: nan Epoch 91 Loss: 29.0819 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=73.53): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.072 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.115 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=70.57): Theta for diagnosed: 0.174 ± 0.087 Theta for others: 0.126 Proportion difference: 0.048 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=68.15): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.085 Theta for others: 0.123 Proportion difference: 0.047 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=67.12): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.073 Theta for others: 0.117 Proportion difference: 0.054 Disease 7 (signature 1, LR=64.79): Theta for diagnosed: 0.191 ± 0.115 Theta for others: nan Proportion difference: nan Epoch 92 Loss: 29.0439 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=73.75): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.073 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.115 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=70.72): Theta for diagnosed: 0.174 ± 0.087 Theta for others: 0.126 Proportion difference: 0.048 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=68.33): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.085 Theta for others: 0.123 Proportion difference: 0.047 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=67.31): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.073 Theta for others: 0.117 Proportion difference: 0.054 Disease 7 (signature 1, LR=65.01): Theta for diagnosed: 0.191 ± 0.116 Theta for others: nan Proportion difference: nan Epoch 93 Loss: 29.0064 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=73.97): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.073 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.115 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=70.86): Theta for diagnosed: 0.174 ± 0.087 Theta for others: 0.126 Proportion difference: 0.048 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=68.51): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.085 Theta for others: 0.123 Proportion difference: 0.047 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=67.49): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.073 Theta for others: 0.117 Proportion difference: 0.055 Disease 7 (signature 1, LR=65.23): Theta for diagnosed: 0.191 ± 0.116 Theta for others: nan Proportion difference: nan Epoch 94 Loss: 28.9713 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=74.20): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.073 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.115 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=71.01): Theta for diagnosed: 0.174 ± 0.087 Theta for others: 0.126 Proportion difference: 0.048 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=68.69): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.086 Theta for others: 0.123 Proportion difference: 0.047 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=67.67): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.073 Theta for others: 0.117 Proportion difference: 0.055 Disease 7 (signature 1, LR=65.45): Theta for diagnosed: 0.191 ± 0.116 Theta for others: nan Proportion difference: nan Epoch 95 Loss: 28.9366 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=74.42): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.073 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.115 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=71.16): Theta for diagnosed: 0.174 ± 0.087 Theta for others: 0.126 Proportion difference: 0.048 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=68.87): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.086 Theta for others: 0.122 Proportion difference: 0.047 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=67.86): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.073 Theta for others: 0.116 Proportion difference: 0.055 Disease 7 (signature 1, LR=65.67): Theta for diagnosed: 0.191 ± 0.116 Theta for others: nan Proportion difference: nan Epoch 96 Loss: 28.9003 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=74.64): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.073 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.115 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=71.31): Theta for diagnosed: 0.174 ± 0.087 Theta for others: 0.126 Proportion difference: 0.049 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=69.05): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.086 Theta for others: 0.122 Proportion difference: 0.048 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=68.04): Theta for diagnosed: 0.172 ± 0.074 Theta for others: 0.116 Proportion difference: 0.055 Disease 7 (signature 1, LR=65.89): Theta for diagnosed: 0.191 ± 0.116 Theta for others: nan Proportion difference: nan Epoch 97 Loss: 28.8637 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=74.87): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.074 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.115 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=71.46): Theta for diagnosed: 0.174 ± 0.088 Theta for others: 0.125 Proportion difference: 0.049 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=69.24): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.086 Theta for others: 0.122 Proportion difference: 0.048 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=68.22): Theta for diagnosed: 0.172 ± 0.074 Theta for others: 0.116 Proportion difference: 0.056 Disease 7 (signature 1, LR=66.12): Theta for diagnosed: 0.192 ± 0.117 Theta for others: nan Proportion difference: nan Epoch 98 Loss: 28.8286 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=75.09): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.074 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.115 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=71.61): Theta for diagnosed: 0.174 ± 0.088 Theta for others: 0.125 Proportion difference: 0.049 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=69.42): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.086 Theta for others: 0.122 Proportion difference: 0.048 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=68.40): Theta for diagnosed: 0.172 ± 0.074 Theta for others: 0.116 Proportion difference: 0.056 Disease 7 (signature 1, LR=66.34): Theta for diagnosed: 0.192 ± 0.117 Theta for others: nan Proportion difference: nan Epoch 99 Loss: 28.7942 Monitoring signature responses: Disease 16 (signature 4, LR=75.32): Theta for diagnosed: 0.171 ± 0.074 Theta for others: 0.056 Proportion difference: 0.115 Disease 15 (signature 3, LR=71.76): Theta for diagnosed: 0.174 ± 0.088 Theta for others: 0.125 Proportion difference: 0.049 Disease 12 (signature 3, LR=69.61): Theta for diagnosed: 0.170 ± 0.086 Theta for others: 0.122 Proportion difference: 0.048 Disease 17 (signature 4, LR=68.59): Theta for diagnosed: 0.172 ± 0.074 Theta for others: 0.116 Proportion difference: 0.056 Disease 7 (signature 1, LR=66.56): Theta for diagnosed: 0.192 ± 0.117 Theta for others: nan Proportion difference: nan
In [8]:
# Modified parameter recovery cell (replace cell 13)
print("\n" + "="*70)
print("PARAMETER RECOVERY ANALYSIS")
print("="*70)
print("Note: Adjusted Rand Index is not shown because we initialize with true clusters,")
print("making it artificially perfect (1.0). Focus is on prediction calibration instead.")
print("="*70)
# Extract estimated parameters
with torch.no_grad():
estimated_psi = model.psi.detach().numpy()
estimated_phi = model.phi.detach().numpy()
estimated_lambda = model.lambda_.detach().numpy()
# Compare Psi and Phi only (clustering is artificially perfect)
fig, axes = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(14, 5))
# True vs Estimated Psi
ax = axes[0]
scatter = ax.scatter(data['psi'].flatten(), estimated_psi.flatten(),
alpha=0.6, s=50, edgecolors='black', linewidth=0.5)
min_val = min(data['psi'].min(), estimated_psi.min())
max_val = max(data['psi'].max(), estimated_psi.max())
ax.plot([min_val, max_val], [min_val, max_val], 'r--', linewidth=2, label='y=x')
ax.set_xlabel('True ψ', fontsize=12)
ax.set_ylabel('Estimated ψ', fontsize=12)
ax.set_title('Psi Recovery', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold')
ax.legend()
ax.grid(True, alpha=0.3)
# Correlation
psi_corr = np.corrcoef(data['psi'].flatten(), estimated_psi.flatten())[0, 1]
ax.text(0.05, 0.95, f'r = {psi_corr:.3f}', transform=ax.transAxes,
fontsize=12, verticalalignment='top',
bbox=dict(boxstyle='round', facecolor='wheat', alpha=0.5))
# Phi recovery (average over time)
ax = axes[1]
true_phi_avg = data['phi'].mean(axis=2) # Average over time
est_phi_avg = estimated_phi.mean(axis=2)
ax.scatter(true_phi_avg.flatten(), est_phi_avg.flatten(),
alpha=0.6, s=50, edgecolors='black', linewidth=0.5)
min_val = min(true_phi_avg.min(), est_phi_avg.min())
max_val = max(true_phi_avg.max(), est_phi_avg.max())
ax.plot([min_val, max_val], [min_val, max_val], 'r--', linewidth=2, label='y=x')
ax.set_xlabel('True φ (avg)', fontsize=12)
ax.set_ylabel('Estimated φ (avg)', fontsize=12)
ax.set_title('Phi Recovery (time-averaged)', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold')
ax.legend()
ax.grid(True, alpha=0.3)
phi_corr = np.corrcoef(true_phi_avg.flatten(), est_phi_avg.flatten())[0, 1]
ax.text(0.05, 0.95, f'r = {phi_corr:.3f}', transform=ax.transAxes,
fontsize=12, verticalalignment='top',
bbox=dict(boxstyle='round', facecolor='wheat', alpha=0.5))
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()
# Print summary statistics
print(f"\nParameter Recovery Statistics:")
print(f" Psi correlation: {psi_corr:.4f}")
print(f" Phi correlation: {phi_corr:.4f}")
====================================================================== PARAMETER RECOVERY ANALYSIS ====================================================================== Note: Adjusted Rand Index is not shown because we initialize with true clusters, making it artificially perfect (1.0). Focus is on prediction calibration instead. ======================================================================
Parameter Recovery Statistics: Psi correlation: 0.9932 Phi correlation: 0.8783
Comparison of True vs Estimated Trajectories¶
In [10]:
def plot_true_calibration(pi_pred, true_pi, Y, n_bins=20, use_log_scale=True, min_bin_count=50):
"""
Plots calibration curve: predicted pi vs. true pi (ground truth), at at-risk times.
This is more important than parameter recovery for mixture models - we care about
prediction accuracy.
"""
# Ensure numpy arrays
if hasattr(pi_pred, 'detach'):
pi_pred = pi_pred.detach().cpu().numpy()
if hasattr(true_pi, 'detach'):
true_pi = true_pi.detach().cpu().numpy()
if hasattr(Y, 'detach'):
Y = Y.detach().cpu().numpy()
N, D, T = Y.shape
# At-risk mask (only consider times before disease onset)
at_risk = np.ones_like(Y, dtype=bool)
for n in range(N):
for d in range(D):
event_times = np.where(Y[n, d, :])[0]
if len(event_times) > 0:
at_risk[n, d, (event_times[0]+1):] = False
pred = pi_pred[at_risk]
truth = true_pi[at_risk]
# Bin by predicted probability
if use_log_scale:
bin_edges = np.logspace(np.log10(max(1e-7, pred.min())), np.log10(pred.max()), n_bins + 1)
else:
bin_edges = np.linspace(pred.min(), pred.max(), n_bins + 1)
bin_means = []
truth_means = []
counts = []
for i in range(n_bins):
mask = (pred >= bin_edges[i]) & (pred < bin_edges[i + 1])
if np.sum(mask) >= min_bin_count:
bin_means.append(np.mean(pred[mask]))
truth_means.append(np.mean(truth[mask]))
counts.append(np.sum(mask))
# Plot - single log scale plot
plt.figure(figsize=(7, 7))
plt.xscale('log')
plt.yscale('log')
plt.plot([1e-7, 1], [1e-7, 1], '--', color='gray', linewidth=2, label='Perfect calibration')
plt.plot(bin_means, truth_means, 'o-', linewidth=2, markersize=8, label='Model calibration')
plt.xlabel('Predicted Probability', fontsize=12)
plt.ylabel('True Probability', fontsize=12)
plt.title('Calibration: Predicted vs True π\n(Log Scale, At-Risk Only)', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold')
plt.legend()
plt.grid(True, which='both', linestyle='--', alpha=0.3)
plt.show()
# Print summary stats
mse = np.mean((np.array(bin_means) - np.array(truth_means))**2)
correlation = np.corrcoef(bin_means, truth_means)[0, 1]
print(f'\nCalibration Statistics:')
print(f' MSE: {mse:.2e}')
print(f' Correlation: {correlation:.4f}')
print(f' Mean Predicted: {np.mean(pred):.6f}')
print(f' Mean True: {np.mean(truth):.6f}')
print(f' N total at-risk observations: {len(pred):,}')
print(f' N bins used: {len(bin_means)}')
return bin_means, truth_means, counts
# Get model predictions
with torch.no_grad():
pi_pred, _, _ = model.forward()
# Plot calibration
print("\n" + "="*70)
print("CALIBRATION ANALYSIS: PREDICTED vs TRUE PROBABILITIES")
print("="*70)
plot_true_calibration(pi_pred, data['pi'], data['Y'], n_bins=20, use_log_scale=True)
====================================================================== CALIBRATION ANALYSIS: PREDICTED vs TRUE PROBABILITIES ======================================================================
Calibration Statistics: MSE: 5.87e-03 Correlation: 0.9222 Mean Predicted: 0.009616 Mean True: 0.009513 N total at-risk observations: 8,749,563 N bins used: 20
Out[10]:
([1.3260773e-06, 2.7122196e-06, 5.2880387e-06, 1.1506615e-05, 2.4354009e-05, 4.5919296e-05, 9.0311936e-05, 0.0001836977, 0.00036518817, 0.00072584336, 0.0014445297, 0.0028855128, 0.0057477253, 0.011221664, 0.022584533, 0.04533383, 0.088671476, 0.16380726, 0.3043931, 0.6609377], [1.818606914443285e-06, 6.043587788134624e-06, 8.026383651129502e-06, 7.655265420270203e-06, 9.022088987214059e-06, 1.9650861321617382e-05, 4.160805637383012e-05, 8.307767601443463e-05, 0.00016338262965881887, 0.000346347591939183, 0.000688423162900587, 0.0016449045205545526, 0.003923981409225025, 0.00876349710645597, 0.019493320837760366, 0.04423103026948786, 0.09609553606652288, 0.188384775840987, 0.30392892205545197, 0.31915293491973074], [1710434, 1032153, 260859, 75829, 199775, 375707, 352595, 357437, 451731, 494417, 549167, 587359, 611573, 539435, 393180, 351635, 285618, 111581, 8416, 658])