R1 Q10: Age-Specific Discrimination¶
Reviewer Question¶
Referee #1, Q10: "Please provide age-specific discrimination analysis."
Why This Matters¶
Age-specific discrimination is important for:
- Understanding model performance across different age groups
- Identifying age ranges where the model performs best/worst
- Validating that the model works across the full age spectrum
Our Approach¶
We evaluate age-stratified AUC by considering how predictions change for people for whom we made predictions at different ages (40-50, 50-60, 60-70, etc.):
- Age Offset Predictions: Use predictions made for the first 10K people with info gathered at enrollment, enrollment+1, enrollment+2, ..., enrollment+10
- Time Horizon Predictions: Use predictions (0, 10, 30 years) for all people, stratified by age of prediction (i.e., age of enrollment)
- Enrollment Age: The age of enrollment for everybody (all 400K) is in
baselinagefamh_withpcs.csv
1. Load Data and Enrollment Ages¶
We load the baseline age file to get enrollment ages for all patients, which we'll use to stratify predictions by age.
================================================================================ LOADING DATA FOR AGE-SPECIFIC ANALYSIS ================================================================================ Y shape: torch.Size([407878, 348, 52]) E shape: torch.Size([407878, 348]) pce_df shape: (10000, 16) baseline_df shape: (407878, 13) Enrollment age column: ['age']
================================================================================ AGE-STRATIFIED AUC CALCULATION: POOLED_RETROSPECTIVE ================================================================================ Pi tensor: /Users/sarahurbut/Library/CloudStorage/Dropbox/enrollment_predictions_fixedphi_correctedE_vectorized/pi_enroll_fixedphi_sex_FULL.pt Output directory: /Users/sarahurbut/aladynoulli2/pyScripts/dec_6_revision/new_notebooks/results/age_stratified/pooled_retrospective ================================================================================ Loading data... Loaded pi tensor: torch.Size([400000, 348, 52]) Loaded Y tensor: torch.Size([407878, 348, 52]) Loaded E tensor: torch.Size([407878, 348]) Loaded pce_df: 400000 patients Loaded baseline_df: 407878 patients Subsetting to first 400000 patients... After subsetting: pi: 400000, Y: 400000, E: 400000, pce_df: 400000, baseline_df: 400000 Using age column: age ================================================================================ PROCESSING AGE GROUP: 39-50 ================================================================================ Patients in age group 39-50: 81307 Processing 1yr (dynamic)... Evaluating ASCVD (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.803 (0.763-0.850) (calculated on 81307 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 199 (0.2%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for ASCVD. Evaluating Diabetes (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.621 (0.604-0.659) (calculated on 81307 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 153 (0.2%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Diabetes. Evaluating Atrial_Fib (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.606 (0.544-0.674) (calculated on 81060 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 81060 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 46 (0.1%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 247 prevalent cases for Atrial_Fib. Evaluating CKD (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.591 (0.499-0.698) (calculated on 81307 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 14 (0.0%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for CKD. Evaluating All_Cancers (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.603 (0.568-0.667) (calculated on 81307 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 33 (0.0%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for All_Cancers. Evaluating Stroke (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.569 (0.440-0.675) (calculated on 81307 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 17 (0.0%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Stroke. Evaluating Heart_Failure (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.667 (0.591-0.763) (calculated on 81307 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 26 (0.0%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Heart_Failure. Evaluating Pneumonia (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.576 (0.497-0.614) (calculated on 81307 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 74 (0.1%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Pneumonia. Evaluating COPD (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.590 (0.526-0.672) (calculated on 81307 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 39 (0.0%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for COPD. Evaluating Osteoporosis (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.599 (0.475-0.719) (calculated on 81239 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 81239 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 13 (0.0%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 68 prevalent cases for Osteoporosis. Evaluating Anemia (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.705 (0.684-0.742) (calculated on 81307 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 213 (0.3%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Anemia. Evaluating Colorectal_Cancer (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.729 (0.640-0.817) (calculated on 81307 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 15 (0.0%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Colorectal_Cancer. Evaluating Breast_Cancer (1-Year Risk)... Filtering for Female: Found 45796 individuals in cohort C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.690 (0.635-0.711) (calculated on 45796 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 45796 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 107 (0.2%) (from 45796 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Breast_Cancer. Evaluating Prostate_Cancer (1-Year Risk)... Filtering for Male: Found 35511 individuals in cohort C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.779 (0.711-0.841) (calculated on 35505 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 35505 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 9 (0.0%) (from 35511 individuals) Excluded 6 prevalent cases for Prostate_Cancer. Evaluating Lung_Cancer (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.395 (0.231-0.656) (calculated on 81290 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 81290 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 3 (0.0%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 17 prevalent cases for Lung_Cancer. Evaluating Bladder_Cancer (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.908 (0.829-1.000) (calculated on 81266 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 81266 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 2 (0.0%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 41 prevalent cases for Bladder_Cancer. Evaluating Secondary_Cancer (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.565 (0.534-0.610) (calculated on 81307 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 55 (0.1%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Secondary_Cancer. Evaluating Depression (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.764 (0.728-0.803) (calculated on 80314 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 80314 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 167 (0.2%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 993 prevalent cases for Depression. Evaluating Anxiety (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.695 (0.642-0.776) (calculated on 81088 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 81088 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 38 (0.0%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 219 prevalent cases for Anxiety. Evaluating Bipolar_Disorder (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.809 (0.633-0.922) (calculated on 81125 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 81125 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 17 (0.0%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 182 prevalent cases for Bipolar_Disorder. Evaluating Rheumatoid_Arthritis (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.845 (0.756-0.873) (calculated on 81105 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 81105 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 33 (0.0%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 202 prevalent cases for Rheumatoid_Arthritis. Evaluating Psoriasis (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.759 (0.658-0.863) (calculated on 81176 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 81176 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 21 (0.0%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 131 prevalent cases for Psoriasis. Evaluating Ulcerative_Colitis (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.916 (0.886-0.923) (calculated on 80938 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 80938 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 39 (0.0%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 369 prevalent cases for Ulcerative_Colitis. Evaluating Crohns_Disease (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.960 (0.950-0.989) (calculated on 81024 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 81024 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 13 (0.0%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 283 prevalent cases for Crohns_Disease. Evaluating Asthma (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.791 (0.770-0.812) (calculated on 78576 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 78576 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 400 (0.5%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 2731 prevalent cases for Asthma. Evaluating Parkinsons (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. Warning: Only one class present ([0.]) for AUC. AUC: nan (nan-nan) (calculated on 81294 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 81294 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 0 (0.0%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 13 prevalent cases for Parkinsons. Evaluating Multiple_Sclerosis (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.782 (0.691-0.913) (calculated on 81079 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 81079 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 17 (0.0%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 228 prevalent cases for Multiple_Sclerosis. Evaluating Thyroid_Disorders (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.690 (0.670-0.735) (calculated on 81307 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 149 (0.2%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Thyroid_Disorders. Summary of Results (1-Year Risk, Sex-Adjusted): -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disease Group AUC Events Rate (%) C-index -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ASCVD 0.803 (0.763-0.850) 199 0.2 N/A Diabetes 0.621 (0.604-0.659) 153 0.2 N/A Atrial_Fib 0.606 (0.544-0.674) 46 0.1 N/A CKD 0.591 (0.499-0.698) 14 0.0 N/A All_Cancers 0.603 (0.568-0.667) 33 0.0 N/A Stroke 0.569 (0.440-0.675) 17 0.0 N/A Heart_Failure 0.667 (0.591-0.763) 26 0.0 N/A Pneumonia 0.576 (0.497-0.614) 74 0.1 N/A COPD 0.590 (0.526-0.672) 39 0.0 N/A Osteoporosis 0.599 (0.475-0.719) 13 0.0 N/A Anemia 0.705 (0.684-0.742) 213 0.3 N/A Colorectal_Cancer 0.729 (0.640-0.817) 15 0.0 N/A Breast_Cancer 0.690 (0.635-0.711) 107 0.2 N/A Prostate_Cancer 0.779 (0.711-0.841) 9 0.0 N/A Lung_Cancer 0.395 (0.231-0.656) 3 0.0 N/A Bladder_Cancer 0.908 (0.829-1.000) 2 0.0 N/A Secondary_Cancer 0.565 (0.534-0.610) 55 0.1 N/A Depression 0.764 (0.728-0.803) 167 0.2 N/A Anxiety 0.695 (0.642-0.776) 38 0.0 N/A Bipolar_Disorder 0.809 (0.633-0.922) 17 0.0 N/A Rheumatoid_Arthritis 0.845 (0.756-0.873) 33 0.0 N/A Psoriasis 0.759 (0.658-0.863) 21 0.0 N/A Ulcerative_Colitis 0.916 (0.886-0.923) 39 0.0 N/A Crohns_Disease 0.960 (0.950-0.989) 13 0.0 N/A Asthma 0.791 (0.770-0.812) 400 0.5 N/A Parkinsons N/A 0 0.0 N/A Multiple_Sclerosis 0.782 (0.691-0.913) 17 0.0 N/A Thyroid_Disorders 0.690 (0.670-0.735) 149 0.2 N/A -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✓ Completed 1yr for age group 39-50 Processing 5yr (dynamic)... Evaluating ASCVD (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.689 (0.671-0.703) (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 1073 (1.3%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for ASCVD. Evaluating Diabetes (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.591 (0.583-0.598) (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 998 (1.2%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Diabetes. Evaluating Atrial_Fib (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.588 (0.577-0.624) (calculated on 81060 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 292 (0.4%) (from 81060 individuals) Excluded 247 prevalent cases for Atrial_Fib. Evaluating CKD (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.536 (0.498-0.575) (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 102 (0.1%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for CKD. Evaluating All_Cancers (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.584 (0.569-0.613) (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 394 (0.5%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for All_Cancers. Evaluating Stroke (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.537 (0.502-0.556) (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 129 (0.2%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Stroke. Evaluating Heart_Failure (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.552 (0.533-0.578) (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 140 (0.2%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Heart_Failure. Evaluating Pneumonia (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.538 (0.521-0.557) (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 481 (0.6%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Pneumonia. Evaluating COPD (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.557 (0.544-0.588) (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 356 (0.4%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for COPD. Evaluating Osteoporosis (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.600 (0.569-0.630) (calculated on 81239 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 115 (0.1%) (from 81239 individuals) Excluded 68 prevalent cases for Osteoporosis. Evaluating Anemia (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.547 (0.536-0.563) (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 1352 (1.7%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Anemia. Evaluating Colorectal_Cancer (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.624 (0.590-0.662) (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 126 (0.2%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Colorectal_Cancer. Evaluating Breast_Cancer (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... Filtering for Female: Found 45796 individuals in cohort AUC: 0.589 (0.574-0.608) (calculated on 45796 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 721 (1.6%) (from 45796 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Breast_Cancer. Evaluating Prostate_Cancer (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... Filtering for Male: Found 35511 individuals in cohort AUC: 0.709 (0.677-0.757) (calculated on 35505 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 58 (0.2%) (from 35505 individuals) Excluded 6 prevalent cases for Prostate_Cancer. Evaluating Lung_Cancer (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.532 (0.438-0.624) (calculated on 81290 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 47 (0.1%) (from 81290 individuals) Excluded 17 prevalent cases for Lung_Cancer. Evaluating Bladder_Cancer (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.610 (0.547-0.661) (calculated on 81266 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 36 (0.0%) (from 81266 individuals) Excluded 41 prevalent cases for Bladder_Cancer. Evaluating Secondary_Cancer (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.565 (0.541-0.578) (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 510 (0.6%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Secondary_Cancer. Evaluating Depression (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.537 (0.525-0.540) (calculated on 80314 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 1375 (1.7%) (from 80314 individuals) Excluded 993 prevalent cases for Depression. Evaluating Anxiety (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.525 (0.506-0.549) (calculated on 81088 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 542 (0.7%) (from 81088 individuals) Excluded 219 prevalent cases for Anxiety. Evaluating Bipolar_Disorder (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.562 (0.509-0.623) (calculated on 81125 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 115 (0.1%) (from 81125 individuals) Excluded 182 prevalent cases for Bipolar_Disorder. Evaluating Rheumatoid_Arthritis (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.567 (0.549-0.613) (calculated on 81105 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 205 (0.3%) (from 81105 individuals) Excluded 202 prevalent cases for Rheumatoid_Arthritis. Evaluating Psoriasis (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.512 (0.503-0.565) (calculated on 81176 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 111 (0.1%) (from 81176 individuals) Excluded 131 prevalent cases for Psoriasis. Evaluating Ulcerative_Colitis (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.609 (0.589-0.656) (calculated on 80938 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 210 (0.3%) (from 80938 individuals) Excluded 369 prevalent cases for Ulcerative_Colitis. Evaluating Crohns_Disease (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.578 (0.524-0.633) (calculated on 81024 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 116 (0.1%) (from 81024 individuals) Excluded 283 prevalent cases for Crohns_Disease. Evaluating Asthma (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.555 (0.545-0.568) (calculated on 78576 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 2352 (3.0%) (from 78576 individuals) Excluded 2731 prevalent cases for Asthma. Evaluating Parkinsons (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.684 (0.506-0.808) (calculated on 81294 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 11 (0.0%) (from 81294 individuals) Excluded 13 prevalent cases for Parkinsons. Evaluating Multiple_Sclerosis (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.580 (0.530-0.651) (calculated on 81079 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 115 (0.1%) (from 81079 individuals) Excluded 228 prevalent cases for Multiple_Sclerosis. Evaluating Thyroid_Disorders (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.572 (0.567-0.583) (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 1016 (1.2%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Thyroid_Disorders. Summary of Results (Dynamic 10-Year Risk, Sex-Adjusted): -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disease Group AUC Events Rate (%) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ASCVD 0.689 (0.671-0.703) 1073 1.3 Diabetes 0.591 (0.583-0.598) 998 1.2 Atrial_Fib 0.588 (0.577-0.624) 292 0.4 CKD 0.536 (0.498-0.575) 102 0.1 All_Cancers 0.584 (0.569-0.613) 394 0.5 Stroke 0.537 (0.502-0.556) 129 0.2 Heart_Failure 0.552 (0.533-0.578) 140 0.2 Pneumonia 0.538 (0.521-0.557) 481 0.6 COPD 0.557 (0.544-0.588) 356 0.4 Osteoporosis 0.600 (0.569-0.630) 115 0.1 Anemia 0.547 (0.536-0.563) 1352 1.7 Colorectal_Cancer 0.624 (0.590-0.662) 126 0.2 Breast_Cancer 0.589 (0.574-0.608) 721 1.6 Prostate_Cancer 0.709 (0.677-0.757) 58 0.2 Lung_Cancer 0.532 (0.438-0.624) 47 0.1 Bladder_Cancer 0.610 (0.547-0.661) 36 0.0 Secondary_Cancer 0.565 (0.541-0.578) 510 0.6 Depression 0.537 (0.525-0.540) 1375 1.7 Anxiety 0.525 (0.506-0.549) 542 0.7 Bipolar_Disorder 0.562 (0.509-0.623) 115 0.1 Rheumatoid_Arthritis 0.567 (0.549-0.613) 205 0.3 Psoriasis 0.512 (0.503-0.565) 111 0.1 Ulcerative_Colitis 0.609 (0.589-0.656) 210 0.3 Crohns_Disease 0.578 (0.524-0.633) 116 0.1 Asthma 0.555 (0.545-0.568) 2352 3.0 Parkinsons 0.684 (0.506-0.808) 11 0.0 Multiple_Sclerosis 0.580 (0.530-0.651) 115 0.1 Thyroid_Disorders 0.572 (0.567-0.583) 1016 1.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✓ Completed 5yr for age group 39-50 Processing 10yr_static (static)... Evaluating ASCVD (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.651 (0.640-0.657) (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 2433 (3.0%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for ASCVD. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.607, Events = 793/45796 Male: AUC = 0.646, Events = 1640/35511 ASCVD risk in patients with pre-existing conditions: RA: AUC = 0.679, Events = 9/202 Breast_Cancer: AUC = 0.470, Events = 7/610 Evaluating Diabetes (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.581 (0.572-0.586) (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 2685 (3.3%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Diabetes. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.574, Events = 1100/45796 Male: AUC = 0.583, Events = 1585/35511 Evaluating Atrial_Fib (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.580 (0.562-0.590) (calculated on 81060 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 696 (0.9%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 247 prevalent cases for Atrial_Fib. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.581, Events = 402/45730 Male: AUC = 0.580, Events = 292/35330 Evaluating CKD (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.539 (0.519-0.563) (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 407 (0.5%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for CKD. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.542, Events = 218/45796 Male: AUC = 0.536, Events = 189/35511 Evaluating All_Cancers (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.599 (0.588-0.609) (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 1109 (1.4%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for All_Cancers. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.562, Events = 532/45796 Male: AUC = 0.632, Events = 577/35511 Evaluating Stroke (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.544 (0.520-0.570) (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 351 (0.4%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Stroke. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.539, Events = 170/45796 Male: AUC = 0.548, Events = 181/35511 Evaluating Heart_Failure (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.574 (0.551-0.602) (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 428 (0.5%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Heart_Failure. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.520, Events = 157/45796 Male: AUC = 0.599, Events = 271/35511 Evaluating Pneumonia (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.540 (0.533-0.553) (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 1293 (1.6%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Pneumonia. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.537, Events = 627/45796 Male: AUC = 0.542, Events = 666/35511 Evaluating COPD (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.550 (0.537-0.557) (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 1133 (1.4%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for COPD. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.545, Events = 538/45796 Male: AUC = 0.552, Events = 595/35511 Evaluating Osteoporosis (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.587 (0.571-0.617) (calculated on 81239 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 451 (0.6%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 68 prevalent cases for Osteoporosis. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.600, Events = 252/45761 Male: AUC = 0.574, Events = 198/35478 Evaluating Anemia (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.525 (0.520-0.538) (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 3142 (3.9%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Anemia. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.507, Events = 2301/45796 Male: AUC = 0.587, Events = 841/35511 Evaluating Colorectal_Cancer (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.599 (0.581-0.622) (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 342 (0.4%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Colorectal_Cancer. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.611, Events = 189/45796 Male: AUC = 0.586, Events = 153/35511 Evaluating Breast_Cancer (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... Filtering for Female: Found 45796 individuals in cohort AUC: 0.540 (0.526-0.553) (calculated on 45796 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 1675 (3.7%) (from 45796 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Breast_Cancer. Evaluating Prostate_Cancer (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... Filtering for Male: Found 35511 individuals in cohort AUC: 0.697 (0.673-0.702) (calculated on 35505 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 248 (0.7%) (from 35511 individuals) Excluded 6 prevalent cases for Prostate_Cancer. Evaluating Lung_Cancer (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.574 (0.515-0.598) (calculated on 81290 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 138 (0.2%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 17 prevalent cases for Lung_Cancer. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.582, Events = 71/45786 Male: AUC = 0.565, Events = 67/35504 Evaluating Bladder_Cancer (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.593 (0.561-0.617) (calculated on 81266 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 89 (0.1%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 41 prevalent cases for Bladder_Cancer. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.570, Events = 46/45781 Male: AUC = 0.619, Events = 43/35485 Evaluating Secondary_Cancer (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.559 (0.544-0.569) (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 1209 (1.5%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Secondary_Cancer. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.543, Events = 883/45796 Male: AUC = 0.601, Events = 326/35511 Evaluating Depression (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.524 (0.516-0.533) (calculated on 80314 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 3823 (4.7%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 993 prevalent cases for Depression. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.532, Events = 2102/45184 Male: AUC = 0.528, Events = 1671/35130 Evaluating Anxiety (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.518 (0.502-0.527) (calculated on 81088 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 2099 (2.6%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 219 prevalent cases for Anxiety. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.523, Events = 1259/45669 Male: AUC = 0.514, Events = 838/35419 Evaluating Bipolar_Disorder (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.492 (0.467-0.521) (calculated on 81125 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 235 (0.3%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 182 prevalent cases for Bipolar_Disorder. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.425, Events = 130/45682 Male: AUC = 0.578, Events = 105/35443 Evaluating Rheumatoid_Arthritis (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.563 (0.541-0.572) (calculated on 81105 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 538 (0.7%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 202 prevalent cases for Rheumatoid_Arthritis. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.567, Events = 307/45637 Male: AUC = 0.560, Events = 229/35468 Evaluating Psoriasis (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.509 (0.488-0.539) (calculated on 81176 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 311 (0.4%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 131 prevalent cases for Psoriasis. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.528, Events = 172/45737 Male: AUC = 0.487, Events = 139/35439 Evaluating Ulcerative_Colitis (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.611 (0.587-0.632) (calculated on 80938 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 421 (0.5%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 369 prevalent cases for Ulcerative_Colitis. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.609, Events = 241/45613 Male: AUC = 0.618, Events = 180/35325 Evaluating Crohns_Disease (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.550 (0.512-0.593) (calculated on 81024 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 258 (0.3%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 283 prevalent cases for Crohns_Disease. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.538, Events = 134/45643 Male: AUC = 0.569, Events = 123/35381 Evaluating Asthma (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.538 (0.530-0.550) (calculated on 78576 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 5003 (6.2%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 2731 prevalent cases for Asthma. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.556, Events = 2709/44038 Male: AUC = 0.553, Events = 2108/34538 Evaluating Parkinsons (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.643 (0.623-0.698) (calculated on 81294 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 54 (0.1%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 13 prevalent cases for Parkinsons. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.587, Events = 30/45791 Male: AUC = 0.713, Events = 24/35503 Evaluating Multiple_Sclerosis (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.531 (0.515-0.568) (calculated on 81079 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 226 (0.3%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 228 prevalent cases for Multiple_Sclerosis. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.542, Events = 119/45640 Male: AUC = 0.526, Events = 106/35439 Evaluating Thyroid_Disorders (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.555 (0.549-0.562) (calculated on 81307 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 2377 (2.9%) (from 81307 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Thyroid_Disorders. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.551, Events = 1986/45796 Male: AUC = 0.532, Events = 391/35511 Summary of Results (Prospective 10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score, Sex-Adjusted): -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disease Group AUC Events Rate (%) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ASCVD 0.651 (0.640-0.657) 2433 3.0 Diabetes 0.581 (0.572-0.586) 2685 3.3 Atrial_Fib 0.580 (0.562-0.590) 696 0.9 CKD 0.539 (0.519-0.563) 407 0.5 All_Cancers 0.599 (0.588-0.609) 1109 1.4 Stroke 0.544 (0.520-0.570) 351 0.4 Heart_Failure 0.574 (0.551-0.602) 428 0.5 Pneumonia 0.540 (0.533-0.553) 1293 1.6 COPD 0.550 (0.537-0.557) 1133 1.4 Osteoporosis 0.587 (0.571-0.617) 451 0.6 Anemia 0.525 (0.520-0.538) 3142 3.9 Colorectal_Cancer 0.599 (0.581-0.622) 342 0.4 Breast_Cancer 0.540 (0.526-0.553) 1675 3.7 Prostate_Cancer 0.697 (0.673-0.702) 248 0.7 Lung_Cancer 0.574 (0.515-0.598) 138 0.2 Bladder_Cancer 0.593 (0.561-0.617) 89 0.1 Secondary_Cancer 0.559 (0.544-0.569) 1209 1.5 Depression 0.524 (0.516-0.533) 3823 4.7 Anxiety 0.518 (0.502-0.527) 2099 2.6 Bipolar_Disorder 0.492 (0.467-0.521) 235 0.3 Rheumatoid_Arthritis 0.563 (0.541-0.572) 538 0.7 Psoriasis 0.509 (0.488-0.539) 311 0.4 Ulcerative_Colitis 0.611 (0.587-0.632) 421 0.5 Crohns_Disease 0.550 (0.512-0.593) 258 0.3 Asthma 0.538 (0.530-0.550) 5003 6.2 Parkinsons 0.643 (0.623-0.698) 54 0.1 Multiple_Sclerosis 0.531 (0.515-0.568) 226 0.3 Thyroid_Disorders 0.555 (0.549-0.562) 2377 2.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✓ Completed 10yr_static for age group 39-50 ================================================================================ PROCESSING AGE GROUP: 50-60 ================================================================================ Patients in age group 50-60: 129874 Processing 1yr (dynamic)... Evaluating ASCVD (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.900 (0.898-0.912) (calculated on 129874 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 816 (0.6%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for ASCVD. Evaluating Diabetes (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.687 (0.673-0.722) (calculated on 129874 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 474 (0.4%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Diabetes. Evaluating Atrial_Fib (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.712 (0.686-0.750) (calculated on 128866 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 128866 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 188 (0.1%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 1008 prevalent cases for Atrial_Fib. Evaluating CKD (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.610 (0.537-0.701) (calculated on 129874 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 29 (0.0%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for CKD. Evaluating All_Cancers (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.684 (0.667-0.707) (calculated on 129874 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 210 (0.2%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for All_Cancers. Evaluating Stroke (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.570 (0.522-0.589) (calculated on 129874 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 83 (0.1%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Stroke. Evaluating Heart_Failure (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.718 (0.691-0.777) (calculated on 129874 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 74 (0.1%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Heart_Failure. Evaluating Pneumonia (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.635 (0.592-0.669) (calculated on 129874 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 133 (0.1%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Pneumonia. Evaluating COPD (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.659 (0.613-0.695) (calculated on 129874 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 189 (0.1%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for COPD. Evaluating Osteoporosis (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.774 (0.752-0.803) (calculated on 129605 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 129605 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 95 (0.1%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 269 prevalent cases for Osteoporosis. Evaluating Anemia (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.754 (0.738-0.777) (calculated on 129874 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 327 (0.3%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Anemia. Evaluating Colorectal_Cancer (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.837 (0.757-0.855) (calculated on 129874 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 79 (0.1%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Colorectal_Cancer. Evaluating Breast_Cancer (1-Year Risk)... Filtering for Female: Found 73058 individuals in cohort C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.861 (0.826-0.888) (calculated on 73058 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 73058 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 226 (0.3%) (from 73058 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Breast_Cancer. Evaluating Prostate_Cancer (1-Year Risk)... Filtering for Male: Found 56816 individuals in cohort C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.780 (0.744-0.821) (calculated on 56600 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 56600 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 79 (0.1%) (from 56816 individuals) Excluded 216 prevalent cases for Prostate_Cancer. Evaluating Lung_Cancer (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.608 (0.532-0.718) (calculated on 129813 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 129813 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 21 (0.0%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 61 prevalent cases for Lung_Cancer. Evaluating Bladder_Cancer (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.750 (0.674-0.832) (calculated on 129707 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 129707 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 22 (0.0%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 167 prevalent cases for Bladder_Cancer. Evaluating Secondary_Cancer (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.560 (0.502-0.598) (calculated on 129874 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 140 (0.1%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Secondary_Cancer. Evaluating Depression (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.807 (0.782-0.824) (calculated on 128502 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 128502 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 204 (0.2%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 1372 prevalent cases for Depression. Evaluating Anxiety (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.736 (0.656-0.750) (calculated on 129514 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 129514 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 69 (0.1%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 360 prevalent cases for Anxiety. Evaluating Bipolar_Disorder (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.896 (0.842-0.956) (calculated on 129638 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 129638 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 21 (0.0%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 236 prevalent cases for Bipolar_Disorder. Evaluating Rheumatoid_Arthritis (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.840 (0.811-0.873) (calculated on 129264 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 129264 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 84 (0.1%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 610 prevalent cases for Rheumatoid_Arthritis. Evaluating Psoriasis (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.669 (0.549-0.730) (calculated on 129653 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 129653 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 40 (0.0%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 221 prevalent cases for Psoriasis. Evaluating Ulcerative_Colitis (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.924 (0.921-0.967) (calculated on 129237 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 129237 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 44 (0.0%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 637 prevalent cases for Ulcerative_Colitis. Evaluating Crohns_Disease (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.929 (0.866-0.971) (calculated on 129483 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 129483 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 31 (0.0%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 391 prevalent cases for Crohns_Disease. Evaluating Asthma (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.791 (0.779-0.800) (calculated on 125885 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 125885 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 587 (0.5%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 3989 prevalent cases for Asthma. Evaluating Parkinsons (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.738 (0.645-0.788) (calculated on 129816 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 129816 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 14 (0.0%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 58 prevalent cases for Parkinsons. Evaluating Multiple_Sclerosis (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.910 (0.836-0.941) (calculated on 129504 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 129504 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 27 (0.0%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 370 prevalent cases for Multiple_Sclerosis. Evaluating Thyroid_Disorders (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.715 (0.691-0.730) (calculated on 129874 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 370 (0.3%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Thyroid_Disorders. Summary of Results (1-Year Risk, Sex-Adjusted): -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disease Group AUC Events Rate (%) C-index -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ASCVD 0.900 (0.898-0.912) 816 0.6 N/A Diabetes 0.687 (0.673-0.722) 474 0.4 N/A Atrial_Fib 0.712 (0.686-0.750) 188 0.1 N/A CKD 0.610 (0.537-0.701) 29 0.0 N/A All_Cancers 0.684 (0.667-0.707) 210 0.2 N/A Stroke 0.570 (0.522-0.589) 83 0.1 N/A Heart_Failure 0.718 (0.691-0.777) 74 0.1 N/A Pneumonia 0.635 (0.592-0.669) 133 0.1 N/A COPD 0.659 (0.613-0.695) 189 0.1 N/A Osteoporosis 0.774 (0.752-0.803) 95 0.1 N/A Anemia 0.754 (0.738-0.777) 327 0.3 N/A Colorectal_Cancer 0.837 (0.757-0.855) 79 0.1 N/A Breast_Cancer 0.861 (0.826-0.888) 226 0.3 N/A Prostate_Cancer 0.780 (0.744-0.821) 79 0.1 N/A Lung_Cancer 0.608 (0.532-0.718) 21 0.0 N/A Bladder_Cancer 0.750 (0.674-0.832) 22 0.0 N/A Secondary_Cancer 0.560 (0.502-0.598) 140 0.1 N/A Depression 0.807 (0.782-0.824) 204 0.2 N/A Anxiety 0.736 (0.656-0.750) 69 0.1 N/A Bipolar_Disorder 0.896 (0.842-0.956) 21 0.0 N/A Rheumatoid_Arthritis 0.840 (0.811-0.873) 84 0.1 N/A Psoriasis 0.669 (0.549-0.730) 40 0.0 N/A Ulcerative_Colitis 0.924 (0.921-0.967) 44 0.0 N/A Crohns_Disease 0.929 (0.866-0.971) 31 0.0 N/A Asthma 0.791 (0.779-0.800) 587 0.5 N/A Parkinsons 0.738 (0.645-0.788) 14 0.0 N/A Multiple_Sclerosis 0.910 (0.836-0.941) 27 0.0 N/A Thyroid_Disorders 0.715 (0.691-0.730) 370 0.3 N/A -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✓ Completed 1yr for age group 50-60 Processing 5yr (dynamic)... Evaluating ASCVD (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.734 (0.727-0.739) (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 4052 (3.1%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for ASCVD. Evaluating Diabetes (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.616 (0.607-0.623) (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 2928 (2.3%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Diabetes. Evaluating Atrial_Fib (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.605 (0.592-0.621) (calculated on 128866 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 1344 (1.0%) (from 128866 individuals) Excluded 1008 prevalent cases for Atrial_Fib. Evaluating CKD (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.555 (0.547-0.568) (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 338 (0.3%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for CKD. Evaluating All_Cancers (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.595 (0.589-0.608) (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 1818 (1.4%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for All_Cancers. Evaluating Stroke (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.564 (0.538-0.580) (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 481 (0.4%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Stroke. Evaluating Heart_Failure (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.598 (0.586-0.616) (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 546 (0.4%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Heart_Failure. Evaluating Pneumonia (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.551 (0.532-0.571) (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 1157 (0.9%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Pneumonia. Evaluating COPD (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.579 (0.574-0.591) (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 1438 (1.1%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for COPD. Evaluating Osteoporosis (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.617 (0.603-0.631) (calculated on 129605 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 713 (0.6%) (from 129605 individuals) Excluded 269 prevalent cases for Osteoporosis. Evaluating Anemia (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.535 (0.531-0.541) (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 2259 (1.7%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Anemia. Evaluating Colorectal_Cancer (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.602 (0.596-0.630) (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 549 (0.4%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Colorectal_Cancer. Evaluating Breast_Cancer (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... Filtering for Female: Found 73058 individuals in cohort AUC: 0.584 (0.573-0.596) (calculated on 73058 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 1293 (1.8%) (from 73058 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Breast_Cancer. Evaluating Prostate_Cancer (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... Filtering for Male: Found 56816 individuals in cohort AUC: 0.642 (0.627-0.665) (calculated on 56600 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 555 (1.0%) (from 56600 individuals) Excluded 216 prevalent cases for Prostate_Cancer. Evaluating Lung_Cancer (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.567 (0.538-0.581) (calculated on 129813 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 277 (0.2%) (from 129813 individuals) Excluded 61 prevalent cases for Lung_Cancer. Evaluating Bladder_Cancer (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.641 (0.608-0.663) (calculated on 129707 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 171 (0.1%) (from 129707 individuals) Excluded 167 prevalent cases for Bladder_Cancer. Evaluating Secondary_Cancer (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.531 (0.521-0.541) (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 1343 (1.0%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Secondary_Cancer. Evaluating Depression (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.530 (0.519-0.538) (calculated on 128502 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 2062 (1.6%) (from 128502 individuals) Excluded 1372 prevalent cases for Depression. Evaluating Anxiety (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.550 (0.538-0.567) (calculated on 129514 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 854 (0.7%) (from 129514 individuals) Excluded 360 prevalent cases for Anxiety. Evaluating Bipolar_Disorder (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.527 (0.494-0.554) (calculated on 129638 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 161 (0.1%) (from 129638 individuals) Excluded 236 prevalent cases for Bipolar_Disorder. Evaluating Rheumatoid_Arthritis (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.574 (0.557-0.597) (calculated on 129264 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 558 (0.4%) (from 129264 individuals) Excluded 610 prevalent cases for Rheumatoid_Arthritis. Evaluating Psoriasis (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.522 (0.499-0.540) (calculated on 129653 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 225 (0.2%) (from 129653 individuals) Excluded 221 prevalent cases for Psoriasis. Evaluating Ulcerative_Colitis (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.608 (0.576-0.630) (calculated on 129237 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 284 (0.2%) (from 129237 individuals) Excluded 637 prevalent cases for Ulcerative_Colitis. Evaluating Crohns_Disease (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.630 (0.601-0.660) (calculated on 129483 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 165 (0.1%) (from 129483 individuals) Excluded 391 prevalent cases for Crohns_Disease. Evaluating Asthma (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.555 (0.546-0.564) (calculated on 125885 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 3676 (2.9%) (from 125885 individuals) Excluded 3989 prevalent cases for Asthma. Evaluating Parkinsons (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.594 (0.564-0.639) (calculated on 129816 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 95 (0.1%) (from 129816 individuals) Excluded 58 prevalent cases for Parkinsons. Evaluating Multiple_Sclerosis (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.600 (0.566-0.633) (calculated on 129504 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 149 (0.1%) (from 129504 individuals) Excluded 370 prevalent cases for Multiple_Sclerosis. Evaluating Thyroid_Disorders (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.571 (0.561-0.578) (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 2429 (1.9%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Thyroid_Disorders. Summary of Results (Dynamic 10-Year Risk, Sex-Adjusted): -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disease Group AUC Events Rate (%) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ASCVD 0.734 (0.727-0.739) 4052 3.1 Diabetes 0.616 (0.607-0.623) 2928 2.3 Atrial_Fib 0.605 (0.592-0.621) 1344 1.0 CKD 0.555 (0.547-0.568) 338 0.3 All_Cancers 0.595 (0.589-0.608) 1818 1.4 Stroke 0.564 (0.538-0.580) 481 0.4 Heart_Failure 0.598 (0.586-0.616) 546 0.4 Pneumonia 0.551 (0.532-0.571) 1157 0.9 COPD 0.579 (0.574-0.591) 1438 1.1 Osteoporosis 0.617 (0.603-0.631) 713 0.6 Anemia 0.535 (0.531-0.541) 2259 1.7 Colorectal_Cancer 0.602 (0.596-0.630) 549 0.4 Breast_Cancer 0.584 (0.573-0.596) 1293 1.8 Prostate_Cancer 0.642 (0.627-0.665) 555 1.0 Lung_Cancer 0.567 (0.538-0.581) 277 0.2 Bladder_Cancer 0.641 (0.608-0.663) 171 0.1 Secondary_Cancer 0.531 (0.521-0.541) 1343 1.0 Depression 0.530 (0.519-0.538) 2062 1.6 Anxiety 0.550 (0.538-0.567) 854 0.7 Bipolar_Disorder 0.527 (0.494-0.554) 161 0.1 Rheumatoid_Arthritis 0.574 (0.557-0.597) 558 0.4 Psoriasis 0.522 (0.499-0.540) 225 0.2 Ulcerative_Colitis 0.608 (0.576-0.630) 284 0.2 Crohns_Disease 0.630 (0.601-0.660) 165 0.1 Asthma 0.555 (0.546-0.564) 3676 2.9 Parkinsons 0.594 (0.564-0.639) 95 0.1 Multiple_Sclerosis 0.600 (0.566-0.633) 149 0.1 Thyroid_Disorders 0.571 (0.561-0.578) 2429 1.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✓ Completed 5yr for age group 50-60 Processing 10yr_static (static)... Evaluating ASCVD (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.689 (0.685-0.693) (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 8629 (6.6%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for ASCVD. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.631, Events = 2816/73058 Male: AUC = 0.666, Events = 5813/56816 ASCVD risk in patients with pre-existing conditions: RA: AUC = 0.643, Events = 80/610 Breast_Cancer: AUC = 0.611, Events = 82/2188 Evaluating Diabetes (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.579 (0.576-0.585) (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 6826 (5.3%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Diabetes. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.571, Events = 2884/73058 Male: AUC = 0.576, Events = 3942/56816 Evaluating Atrial_Fib (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.595 (0.588-0.601) (calculated on 128866 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 3096 (2.4%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 1008 prevalent cases for Atrial_Fib. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.600, Events = 1762/72789 Male: AUC = 0.594, Events = 1313/56077 Evaluating CKD (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.565 (0.560-0.578) (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 1625 (1.3%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for CKD. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.549, Events = 828/73058 Male: AUC = 0.581, Events = 797/56816 Evaluating All_Cancers (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.576 (0.570-0.582) (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 4987 (3.8%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for All_Cancers. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.547, Events = 1776/73058 Male: AUC = 0.582, Events = 3211/56816 Evaluating Stroke (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.562 (0.548-0.570) (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 1196 (0.9%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Stroke. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.556, Events = 523/73058 Male: AUC = 0.563, Events = 673/56816 Evaluating Heart_Failure (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.587 (0.576-0.595) (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 1618 (1.2%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Heart_Failure. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.564, Events = 514/73058 Male: AUC = 0.587, Events = 1104/56816 Evaluating Pneumonia (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.564 (0.552-0.572) (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 3534 (2.7%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Pneumonia. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.564, Events = 1664/73058 Male: AUC = 0.561, Events = 1870/56816 Evaluating COPD (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.567 (0.561-0.576) (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 4080 (3.1%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for COPD. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.565, Events = 1983/73058 Male: AUC = 0.566, Events = 2097/56816 Evaluating Osteoporosis (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.589 (0.578-0.597) (calculated on 129605 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 2229 (1.7%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 269 prevalent cases for Osteoporosis. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.590, Events = 1242/72847 Male: AUC = 0.590, Events = 983/56758 Evaluating Anemia (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.534 (0.526-0.540) (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 5646 (4.3%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Anemia. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.526, Events = 3275/73058 Male: AUC = 0.546, Events = 2371/56816 Evaluating Colorectal_Cancer (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.565 (0.558-0.577) (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 1338 (1.0%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Colorectal_Cancer. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.555, Events = 616/73058 Male: AUC = 0.569, Events = 722/56816 Evaluating Breast_Cancer (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... Filtering for Female: Found 73058 individuals in cohort AUC: 0.556 (0.548-0.567) (calculated on 73058 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 2906 (4.0%) (from 73058 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Breast_Cancer. Evaluating Prostate_Cancer (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... Filtering for Male: Found 56816 individuals in cohort AUC: 0.602 (0.594-0.618) (calculated on 56600 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 1688 (3.0%) (from 56816 individuals) Excluded 216 prevalent cases for Prostate_Cancer. Evaluating Lung_Cancer (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.573 (0.559-0.576) (calculated on 129813 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 816 (0.6%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 61 prevalent cases for Lung_Cancer. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.559, Events = 451/73024 Male: AUC = 0.589, Events = 364/56789 Evaluating Bladder_Cancer (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.598 (0.585-0.617) (calculated on 129707 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 434 (0.3%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 167 prevalent cases for Bladder_Cancer. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.610, Events = 232/73015 Male: AUC = 0.586, Events = 202/56692 Evaluating Secondary_Cancer (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.543 (0.539-0.549) (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 3414 (2.6%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Secondary_Cancer. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.536, Events = 2072/73058 Male: AUC = 0.555, Events = 1342/56816 Evaluating Depression (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.508 (0.503-0.519) (calculated on 128502 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 5547 (4.3%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 1372 prevalent cases for Depression. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.517, Events = 3110/72225 Male: AUC = 0.509, Events = 2375/56277 Evaluating Anxiety (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.526 (0.521-0.536) (calculated on 129514 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 3207 (2.5%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 360 prevalent cases for Anxiety. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.524, Events = 1812/72853 Male: AUC = 0.530, Events = 1383/56661 Evaluating Bipolar_Disorder (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.494 (0.446-0.520) (calculated on 129638 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 322 (0.2%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 236 prevalent cases for Bipolar_Disorder. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.486, Events = 174/72906 Male: AUC = 0.506, Events = 147/56732 Evaluating Rheumatoid_Arthritis (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.555 (0.539-0.563) (calculated on 129264 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 1382 (1.1%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 610 prevalent cases for Rheumatoid_Arthritis. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.553, Events = 757/72590 Male: AUC = 0.559, Events = 618/56674 Evaluating Psoriasis (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.507 (0.483-0.510) (calculated on 129653 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 634 (0.5%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 221 prevalent cases for Psoriasis. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.502, Events = 357/72970 Male: AUC = 0.515, Events = 277/56683 Evaluating Ulcerative_Colitis (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.588 (0.572-0.615) (calculated on 129237 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 617 (0.5%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 637 prevalent cases for Ulcerative_Colitis. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.609, Events = 338/72725 Male: AUC = 0.570, Events = 273/56512 Evaluating Crohns_Disease (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.613 (0.591-0.649) (calculated on 129483 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 372 (0.3%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 391 prevalent cases for Crohns_Disease. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.609, Events = 215/72839 Male: AUC = 0.619, Events = 155/56644 Evaluating Asthma (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.532 (0.525-0.539) (calculated on 125885 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 7642 (5.9%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 3989 prevalent cases for Asthma. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.546, Events = 4085/70455 Male: AUC = 0.550, Events = 3315/55430 Evaluating Parkinsons (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.624 (0.608-0.635) (calculated on 129816 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 312 (0.2%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 58 prevalent cases for Parkinsons. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.646, Events = 179/73029 Male: AUC = 0.594, Events = 133/56787 Evaluating Multiple_Sclerosis (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.547 (0.515-0.576) (calculated on 129504 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 307 (0.2%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 370 prevalent cases for Multiple_Sclerosis. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.535, Events = 196/72782 Male: AUC = 0.573, Events = 111/56722 Evaluating Thyroid_Disorders (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.547 (0.541-0.550) (calculated on 129874 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 5485 (4.2%) (from 129874 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Thyroid_Disorders. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.533, Events = 4454/73058 Male: AUC = 0.542, Events = 1031/56816 Summary of Results (Prospective 10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score, Sex-Adjusted): -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disease Group AUC Events Rate (%) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ASCVD 0.689 (0.685-0.693) 8629 6.6 Diabetes 0.579 (0.576-0.585) 6826 5.3 Atrial_Fib 0.595 (0.588-0.601) 3096 2.4 CKD 0.565 (0.560-0.578) 1625 1.3 All_Cancers 0.576 (0.570-0.582) 4987 3.8 Stroke 0.562 (0.548-0.570) 1196 0.9 Heart_Failure 0.587 (0.576-0.595) 1618 1.2 Pneumonia 0.564 (0.552-0.572) 3534 2.7 COPD 0.567 (0.561-0.576) 4080 3.1 Osteoporosis 0.589 (0.578-0.597) 2229 1.7 Anemia 0.534 (0.526-0.540) 5646 4.3 Colorectal_Cancer 0.565 (0.558-0.577) 1338 1.0 Breast_Cancer 0.556 (0.548-0.567) 2906 4.0 Prostate_Cancer 0.602 (0.594-0.618) 1688 3.0 Lung_Cancer 0.573 (0.559-0.576) 816 0.6 Bladder_Cancer 0.598 (0.585-0.617) 434 0.3 Secondary_Cancer 0.543 (0.539-0.549) 3414 2.6 Depression 0.508 (0.503-0.519) 5547 4.3 Anxiety 0.526 (0.521-0.536) 3207 2.5 Bipolar_Disorder 0.494 (0.446-0.520) 322 0.2 Rheumatoid_Arthritis 0.555 (0.539-0.563) 1382 1.1 Psoriasis 0.507 (0.483-0.510) 634 0.5 Ulcerative_Colitis 0.588 (0.572-0.615) 617 0.5 Crohns_Disease 0.613 (0.591-0.649) 372 0.3 Asthma 0.532 (0.525-0.539) 7642 5.9 Parkinsons 0.624 (0.608-0.635) 312 0.2 Multiple_Sclerosis 0.547 (0.515-0.576) 307 0.2 Thyroid_Disorders 0.547 (0.541-0.550) 5485 4.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✓ Completed 10yr_static for age group 50-60 ================================================================================ PROCESSING AGE GROUP: 60-72 ================================================================================ Patients in age group 60-72: 188813 Processing 1yr (dynamic)... Evaluating ASCVD (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.928 (0.925-0.935) (calculated on 188813 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 2253 (1.2%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for ASCVD. Evaluating Diabetes (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.881 (0.878-0.887) (calculated on 188813 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 1035 (0.5%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Diabetes. Evaluating Atrial_Fib (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.842 (0.831-0.856) (calculated on 184886 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 184886 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 678 (0.4%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 3927 prevalent cases for Atrial_Fib. Evaluating CKD (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.687 (0.628-0.749) (calculated on 188813 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 70 (0.0%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for CKD. Evaluating All_Cancers (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.740 (0.718-0.755) (calculated on 188813 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 697 (0.4%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for All_Cancers. Evaluating Stroke (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.591 (0.575-0.616) (calculated on 188813 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 203 (0.1%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Stroke. Evaluating Heart_Failure (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.803 (0.772-0.823) (calculated on 188813 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 258 (0.1%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Heart_Failure. Evaluating Pneumonia (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.683 (0.659-0.714) (calculated on 188813 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 304 (0.2%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Pneumonia. Evaluating COPD (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.739 (0.729-0.754) (calculated on 188813 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 576 (0.3%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for COPD. Evaluating Osteoporosis (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.744 (0.731-0.750) (calculated on 187953 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 187953 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 259 (0.1%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 860 prevalent cases for Osteoporosis. Evaluating Anemia (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.745 (0.731-0.764) (calculated on 188813 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 631 (0.3%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Anemia. Evaluating Colorectal_Cancer (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.907 (0.904-0.929) (calculated on 188813 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 186 (0.1%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Colorectal_Cancer. Evaluating Breast_Cancer (1-Year Risk)... Filtering for Female: Found 98604 individuals in cohort C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.963 (0.957-0.971) (calculated on 98604 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 98604 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 343 (0.3%) (from 98604 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Breast_Cancer. Evaluating Prostate_Cancer (1-Year Risk)... Filtering for Male: Found 90209 individuals in cohort C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.850 (0.840-0.864) (calculated on 88552 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 88552 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 360 (0.4%) (from 90209 individuals) Excluded 1657 prevalent cases for Prostate_Cancer. Evaluating Lung_Cancer (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.664 (0.621-0.712) (calculated on 188651 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 188651 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 57 (0.0%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 162 prevalent cases for Lung_Cancer. Evaluating Bladder_Cancer (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.833 (0.796-0.889) (calculated on 188110 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 188110 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 89 (0.0%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 703 prevalent cases for Bladder_Cancer. Evaluating Secondary_Cancer (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.650 (0.632-0.674) (calculated on 188813 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 241 (0.1%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Secondary_Cancer. Evaluating Depression (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.769 (0.751-0.798) (calculated on 187348 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 187348 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 224 (0.1%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 1465 prevalent cases for Depression. Evaluating Anxiety (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.731 (0.658-0.774) (calculated on 188362 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 188362 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 74 (0.0%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 451 prevalent cases for Anxiety. Evaluating Bipolar_Disorder (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.797 (0.669-0.844) (calculated on 188613 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 188613 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 21 (0.0%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 200 prevalent cases for Bipolar_Disorder. Evaluating Rheumatoid_Arthritis (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.812 (0.769-0.840) (calculated on 187564 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 187564 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 162 (0.1%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 1249 prevalent cases for Rheumatoid_Arthritis. Evaluating Psoriasis (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.778 (0.738-0.853) (calculated on 188429 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 188429 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 49 (0.0%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 384 prevalent cases for Psoriasis. Evaluating Ulcerative_Colitis (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.952 (0.946-0.966) (calculated on 187804 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 187804 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 80 (0.0%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 1009 prevalent cases for Ulcerative_Colitis. Evaluating Crohns_Disease (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.899 (0.869-0.907) (calculated on 188326 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 188326 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 66 (0.0%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 487 prevalent cases for Crohns_Disease. Evaluating Asthma (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.845 (0.831-0.857) (calculated on 182613 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 182613 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 941 (0.5%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 6200 prevalent cases for Asthma. Evaluating Parkinsons (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.749 (0.677-0.768) (calculated on 188613 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 188613 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 67 (0.0%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 200 prevalent cases for Parkinsons. Evaluating Multiple_Sclerosis (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.907 (0.882-0.945) (calculated on 188497 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 188497 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 26 (0.0%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 316 prevalent cases for Multiple_Sclerosis. Evaluating Thyroid_Disorders (1-Year Risk)... C-index calculation failed: No admissable pairs in the dataset. AUC: 0.749 (0.732-0.770) (calculated on 188813 individuals) C-index: nan (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (1-Year in Eval Cohort): 722 (0.4%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Thyroid_Disorders. Summary of Results (1-Year Risk, Sex-Adjusted): -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disease Group AUC Events Rate (%) C-index -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ASCVD 0.928 (0.925-0.935) 2253 1.2 N/A Diabetes 0.881 (0.878-0.887) 1035 0.5 N/A Atrial_Fib 0.842 (0.831-0.856) 678 0.4 N/A CKD 0.687 (0.628-0.749) 70 0.0 N/A All_Cancers 0.740 (0.718-0.755) 697 0.4 N/A Stroke 0.591 (0.575-0.616) 203 0.1 N/A Heart_Failure 0.803 (0.772-0.823) 258 0.1 N/A Pneumonia 0.683 (0.659-0.714) 304 0.2 N/A COPD 0.739 (0.729-0.754) 576 0.3 N/A Osteoporosis 0.744 (0.731-0.750) 259 0.1 N/A Anemia 0.745 (0.731-0.764) 631 0.3 N/A Colorectal_Cancer 0.907 (0.904-0.929) 186 0.1 N/A Breast_Cancer 0.963 (0.957-0.971) 343 0.3 N/A Prostate_Cancer 0.850 (0.840-0.864) 360 0.4 N/A Lung_Cancer 0.664 (0.621-0.712) 57 0.0 N/A Bladder_Cancer 0.833 (0.796-0.889) 89 0.0 N/A Secondary_Cancer 0.650 (0.632-0.674) 241 0.1 N/A Depression 0.769 (0.751-0.798) 224 0.1 N/A Anxiety 0.731 (0.658-0.774) 74 0.0 N/A Bipolar_Disorder 0.797 (0.669-0.844) 21 0.0 N/A Rheumatoid_Arthritis 0.812 (0.769-0.840) 162 0.1 N/A Psoriasis 0.778 (0.738-0.853) 49 0.0 N/A Ulcerative_Colitis 0.952 (0.946-0.966) 80 0.0 N/A Crohns_Disease 0.899 (0.869-0.907) 66 0.0 N/A Asthma 0.845 (0.831-0.857) 941 0.5 N/A Parkinsons 0.749 (0.677-0.768) 67 0.0 N/A Multiple_Sclerosis 0.907 (0.882-0.945) 26 0.0 N/A Thyroid_Disorders 0.749 (0.732-0.770) 722 0.4 N/A -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✓ Completed 1yr for age group 60-72 Processing 5yr (dynamic)... Evaluating ASCVD (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.726 (0.721-0.730) (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 12042 (6.4%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for ASCVD. Evaluating Diabetes (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.693 (0.688-0.699) (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 6459 (3.4%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Diabetes. Evaluating Atrial_Fib (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.614 (0.605-0.619) (calculated on 184886 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 5023 (2.7%) (from 184886 individuals) Excluded 3927 prevalent cases for Atrial_Fib. Evaluating CKD (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.598 (0.590-0.607) (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 1282 (0.7%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for CKD. Evaluating All_Cancers (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.604 (0.599-0.606) (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 6023 (3.2%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for All_Cancers. Evaluating Stroke (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.607 (0.599-0.617) (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 1502 (0.8%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Stroke. Evaluating Heart_Failure (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.625 (0.612-0.631) (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 2034 (1.1%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Heart_Failure. Evaluating Pneumonia (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.585 (0.577-0.596) (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 2933 (1.6%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Pneumonia. Evaluating COPD (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.598 (0.591-0.602) (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 4241 (2.2%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for COPD. Evaluating Osteoporosis (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.607 (0.595-0.617) (calculated on 187953 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 2252 (1.2%) (from 187953 individuals) Excluded 860 prevalent cases for Osteoporosis. Evaluating Anemia (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.575 (0.572-0.581) (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 4833 (2.6%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Anemia. Evaluating Colorectal_Cancer (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.619 (0.611-0.631) (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 1454 (0.8%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Colorectal_Cancer. Evaluating Breast_Cancer (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... Filtering for Female: Found 98604 individuals in cohort AUC: 0.602 (0.598-0.611) (calculated on 98604 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 2186 (2.2%) (from 98604 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Breast_Cancer. Evaluating Prostate_Cancer (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... Filtering for Male: Found 90209 individuals in cohort AUC: 0.618 (0.610-0.625) (calculated on 88552 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 2398 (2.7%) (from 88552 individuals) Excluded 1657 prevalent cases for Prostate_Cancer. Evaluating Lung_Cancer (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.577 (0.565-0.581) (calculated on 188651 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 920 (0.5%) (from 188651 individuals) Excluded 162 prevalent cases for Lung_Cancer. Evaluating Bladder_Cancer (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.644 (0.628-0.653) (calculated on 188110 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 723 (0.4%) (from 188110 individuals) Excluded 703 prevalent cases for Bladder_Cancer. Evaluating Secondary_Cancer (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.564 (0.551-0.570) (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 3037 (1.6%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Secondary_Cancer. Evaluating Depression (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.523 (0.515-0.535) (calculated on 187348 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 2410 (1.3%) (from 187348 individuals) Excluded 1465 prevalent cases for Depression. Evaluating Anxiety (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.532 (0.514-0.538) (calculated on 188362 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 1194 (0.6%) (from 188362 individuals) Excluded 451 prevalent cases for Anxiety. Evaluating Bipolar_Disorder (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.544 (0.507-0.570) (calculated on 188613 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 189 (0.1%) (from 188613 individuals) Excluded 200 prevalent cases for Bipolar_Disorder. Evaluating Rheumatoid_Arthritis (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.596 (0.579-0.610) (calculated on 187564 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 1109 (0.6%) (from 187564 individuals) Excluded 1249 prevalent cases for Rheumatoid_Arthritis. Evaluating Psoriasis (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.552 (0.529-0.580) (calculated on 188429 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 385 (0.2%) (from 188429 individuals) Excluded 384 prevalent cases for Psoriasis. Evaluating Ulcerative_Colitis (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.628 (0.603-0.654) (calculated on 187804 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 466 (0.2%) (from 187804 individuals) Excluded 1009 prevalent cases for Ulcerative_Colitis. Evaluating Crohns_Disease (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.652 (0.630-0.690) (calculated on 188326 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 280 (0.1%) (from 188326 individuals) Excluded 487 prevalent cases for Crohns_Disease. Evaluating Asthma (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.586 (0.579-0.591) (calculated on 182613 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 5836 (3.2%) (from 182613 individuals) Excluded 6200 prevalent cases for Asthma. Evaluating Parkinsons (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.599 (0.581-0.607) (calculated on 188613 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 474 (0.3%) (from 188613 individuals) Excluded 200 prevalent cases for Parkinsons. Evaluating Multiple_Sclerosis (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.595 (0.561-0.659) (calculated on 188497 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 135 (0.1%) (from 188497 individuals) Excluded 316 prevalent cases for Multiple_Sclerosis. Evaluating Thyroid_Disorders (Dynamic 10-Year Risk)... AUC: 0.604 (0.595-0.610) (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 4659 (2.5%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Thyroid_Disorders. Summary of Results (Dynamic 10-Year Risk, Sex-Adjusted): -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disease Group AUC Events Rate (%) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ASCVD 0.726 (0.721-0.730) 12042 6.4 Diabetes 0.693 (0.688-0.699) 6459 3.4 Atrial_Fib 0.614 (0.605-0.619) 5023 2.7 CKD 0.598 (0.590-0.607) 1282 0.7 All_Cancers 0.604 (0.599-0.606) 6023 3.2 Stroke 0.607 (0.599-0.617) 1502 0.8 Heart_Failure 0.625 (0.612-0.631) 2034 1.1 Pneumonia 0.585 (0.577-0.596) 2933 1.6 COPD 0.598 (0.591-0.602) 4241 2.2 Osteoporosis 0.607 (0.595-0.617) 2252 1.2 Anemia 0.575 (0.572-0.581) 4833 2.6 Colorectal_Cancer 0.619 (0.611-0.631) 1454 0.8 Breast_Cancer 0.602 (0.598-0.611) 2186 2.2 Prostate_Cancer 0.618 (0.610-0.625) 2398 2.7 Lung_Cancer 0.577 (0.565-0.581) 920 0.5 Bladder_Cancer 0.644 (0.628-0.653) 723 0.4 Secondary_Cancer 0.564 (0.551-0.570) 3037 1.6 Depression 0.523 (0.515-0.535) 2410 1.3 Anxiety 0.532 (0.514-0.538) 1194 0.6 Bipolar_Disorder 0.544 (0.507-0.570) 189 0.1 Rheumatoid_Arthritis 0.596 (0.579-0.610) 1109 0.6 Psoriasis 0.552 (0.529-0.580) 385 0.2 Ulcerative_Colitis 0.628 (0.603-0.654) 466 0.2 Crohns_Disease 0.652 (0.630-0.690) 280 0.1 Asthma 0.586 (0.579-0.591) 5836 3.2 Parkinsons 0.599 (0.581-0.607) 474 0.3 Multiple_Sclerosis 0.595 (0.561-0.659) 135 0.1 Thyroid_Disorders 0.604 (0.595-0.610) 4659 2.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✓ Completed 5yr for age group 60-72 Processing 10yr_static (static)... Evaluating ASCVD (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.707 (0.704-0.711) (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 23642 (12.5%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for ASCVD. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.656, Events = 8032/98604 Male: AUC = 0.683, Events = 15610/90209 ASCVD risk in patients with pre-existing conditions: RA: AUC = 0.693, Events = 237/1249 Breast_Cancer: AUC = 0.649, Events = 274/3674 Evaluating Diabetes (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.637 (0.633-0.642) (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 14245 (7.5%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Diabetes. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.634, Events = 5575/98604 Male: AUC = 0.623, Events = 8670/90209 Evaluating Atrial_Fib (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.609 (0.606-0.611) (calculated on 184886 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 11485 (6.1%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 3927 prevalent cases for Atrial_Fib. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.618, Events = 5966/97462 Male: AUC = 0.617, Events = 5288/87424 Evaluating CKD (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.600 (0.594-0.606) (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 6948 (3.7%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for CKD. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.597, Events = 3189/98604 Male: AUC = 0.602, Events = 3759/90209 Evaluating All_Cancers (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.577 (0.571-0.579) (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 14242 (7.5%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for All_Cancers. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.561, Events = 4010/98604 Male: AUC = 0.561, Events = 10232/90209 Evaluating Stroke (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.603 (0.593-0.615) (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 4139 (2.2%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Stroke. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.612, Events = 1753/98604 Male: AUC = 0.593, Events = 2386/90209 Evaluating Heart_Failure (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.614 (0.608-0.620) (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 6166 (3.3%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Heart_Failure. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.624, Events = 2120/98604 Male: AUC = 0.596, Events = 4046/90209 Evaluating Pneumonia (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.587 (0.583-0.591) (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 9641 (5.1%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Pneumonia. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.577, Events = 3987/98604 Male: AUC = 0.587, Events = 5654/90209 Evaluating COPD (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.575 (0.573-0.578) (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 11576 (6.1%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for COPD. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.571, Events = 5040/98604 Male: AUC = 0.573, Events = 6536/90209 Evaluating Osteoporosis (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.587 (0.581-0.592) (calculated on 187953 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 6465 (3.4%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 860 prevalent cases for Osteoporosis. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.591, Events = 3405/97874 Male: AUC = 0.585, Events = 3028/90079 Evaluating Anemia (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.559 (0.555-0.561) (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 12682 (6.7%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Anemia. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.556, Events = 6340/98604 Male: AUC = 0.562, Events = 6342/90209 Evaluating Colorectal_Cancer (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.579 (0.575-0.585) (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 3254 (1.7%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Colorectal_Cancer. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.582, Events = 1333/98604 Male: AUC = 0.573, Events = 1921/90209 Evaluating Breast_Cancer (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... Filtering for Female: Found 98604 individuals in cohort AUC: 0.559 (0.550-0.566) (calculated on 98604 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 4447 (4.5%) (from 98604 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Breast_Cancer. Evaluating Prostate_Cancer (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... Filtering for Male: Found 90209 individuals in cohort AUC: 0.567 (0.560-0.573) (calculated on 88552 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 5629 (6.2%) (from 90209 individuals) Excluded 1657 prevalent cases for Prostate_Cancer. Evaluating Lung_Cancer (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.566 (0.554-0.576) (calculated on 188651 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 2365 (1.3%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 162 prevalent cases for Lung_Cancer. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.570, Events = 1206/98540 Male: AUC = 0.562, Events = 1158/90111 Evaluating Bladder_Cancer (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.606 (0.598-0.617) (calculated on 188110 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 1635 (0.9%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 703 prevalent cases for Bladder_Cancer. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.596, Events = 861/98441 Male: AUC = 0.620, Events = 772/89669 Evaluating Secondary_Cancer (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.552 (0.547-0.555) (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 7606 (4.0%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Secondary_Cancer. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.544, Events = 3904/98604 Male: AUC = 0.561, Events = 3702/90209 Evaluating Depression (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.519 (0.511-0.522) (calculated on 187348 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 6913 (3.7%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 1465 prevalent cases for Depression. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.521, Events = 3595/97776 Male: AUC = 0.526, Events = 3254/89572 Evaluating Anxiety (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.539 (0.531-0.547) (calculated on 188362 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 4728 (2.5%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 451 prevalent cases for Anxiety. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.543, Events = 2468/98368 Male: AUC = 0.537, Events = 2246/89994 Evaluating Bipolar_Disorder (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.491 (0.457-0.507) (calculated on 188613 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 422 (0.2%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 200 prevalent cases for Bipolar_Disorder. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.495, Events = 225/98496 Male: AUC = 0.487, Events = 197/90117 Evaluating Rheumatoid_Arthritis (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.574 (0.564-0.584) (calculated on 187564 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 2825 (1.5%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 1249 prevalent cases for Rheumatoid_Arthritis. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.578, Events = 1445/97761 Male: AUC = 0.575, Events = 1367/89803 Evaluating Psoriasis (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.525 (0.527-0.545) (calculated on 188429 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 1076 (0.6%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 384 prevalent cases for Psoriasis. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.534, Events = 552/98443 Male: AUC = 0.517, Events = 523/89986 Evaluating Ulcerative_Colitis (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.619 (0.603-0.636) (calculated on 187804 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 1020 (0.5%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 1009 prevalent cases for Ulcerative_Colitis. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.620, Events = 511/98162 Male: AUC = 0.620, Events = 507/89642 Evaluating Crohns_Disease (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.625 (0.596-0.647) (calculated on 188326 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 555 (0.3%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 487 prevalent cases for Crohns_Disease. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.596, Events = 305/98348 Male: AUC = 0.665, Events = 249/89978 Evaluating Asthma (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.549 (0.544-0.553) (calculated on 182613 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 11679 (6.2%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 6200 prevalent cases for Asthma. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.566, Events = 5831/94915 Male: AUC = 0.563, Events = 5462/87698 Evaluating Parkinsons (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.600 (0.589-0.610) (calculated on 188613 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 1473 (0.8%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 200 prevalent cases for Parkinsons. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.597, Events = 792/98521 Male: AUC = 0.604, Events = 678/90092 Evaluating Multiple_Sclerosis (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.561 (0.530-0.583) (calculated on 188497 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 267 (0.1%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 316 prevalent cases for Multiple_Sclerosis. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.579, Events = 141/98375 Male: AUC = 0.543, Events = 126/90122 Evaluating Thyroid_Disorders (10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score)... AUC: 0.571 (0.568-0.576) (calculated on 188813 individuals) Events (10-Year in Eval Cohort): 10158 (5.4%) (from 188813 individuals) Excluded 0 prevalent cases for Thyroid_Disorders. Sex-stratified analysis: Female: AUC = 0.548, Events = 7910/98604 Male: AUC = 0.543, Events = 2248/90209 Summary of Results (Prospective 10-Year Outcome, 1-Year Score, Sex-Adjusted): -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disease Group AUC Events Rate (%) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ASCVD 0.707 (0.704-0.711) 23642 12.5 Diabetes 0.637 (0.633-0.642) 14245 7.5 Atrial_Fib 0.609 (0.606-0.611) 11485 6.1 CKD 0.600 (0.594-0.606) 6948 3.7 All_Cancers 0.577 (0.571-0.579) 14242 7.5 Stroke 0.603 (0.593-0.615) 4139 2.2 Heart_Failure 0.614 (0.608-0.620) 6166 3.3 Pneumonia 0.587 (0.583-0.591) 9641 5.1 COPD 0.575 (0.573-0.578) 11576 6.1 Osteoporosis 0.587 (0.581-0.592) 6465 3.4 Anemia 0.559 (0.555-0.561) 12682 6.7 Colorectal_Cancer 0.579 (0.575-0.585) 3254 1.7 Breast_Cancer 0.559 (0.550-0.566) 4447 4.5 Prostate_Cancer 0.567 (0.560-0.573) 5629 6.2 Lung_Cancer 0.566 (0.554-0.576) 2365 1.3 Bladder_Cancer 0.606 (0.598-0.617) 1635 0.9 Secondary_Cancer 0.552 (0.547-0.555) 7606 4.0 Depression 0.519 (0.511-0.522) 6913 3.7 Anxiety 0.539 (0.531-0.547) 4728 2.5 Bipolar_Disorder 0.491 (0.457-0.507) 422 0.2 Rheumatoid_Arthritis 0.574 (0.564-0.584) 2825 1.5 Psoriasis 0.525 (0.527-0.545) 1076 0.6 Ulcerative_Colitis 0.619 (0.603-0.636) 1020 0.5 Crohns_Disease 0.625 (0.596-0.647) 555 0.3 Asthma 0.549 (0.544-0.553) 11679 6.2 Parkinsons 0.600 (0.589-0.610) 1473 0.8 Multiple_Sclerosis 0.561 (0.530-0.583) 267 0.1 Thyroid_Disorders 0.571 (0.568-0.576) 10158 5.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✓ Completed 10yr_static for age group 60-72 ================================================================================ COMPLETED SUCCESSFULLY ================================================================================ Results saved to: /Users/sarahurbut/aladynoulli2/pyScripts/dec_6_revision/new_notebooks/results/age_stratified/pooled_retrospective/age_stratified_auc_results.csv Summary: Age groups: 3 Time horizons: 3 Total disease-horizon-age combinations: 252 Sample results: Age_Group Time_Horizon Disease AUC CI_Lower CI_Upper N_Events Event_Rate N_Patients 56 39-50 10yr_static ASCVD 0.650544 0.639594 0.656595 2433 2.992362 81307 60 39-50 10yr_static All_Cancers 0.599464 0.587736 0.608652 1109 1.363966 81307 66 39-50 10yr_static Anemia 0.525206 0.520019 0.538488 3142 3.864366 81307 74 39-50 10yr_static Anxiety 0.518267 0.502207 0.527041 2099 2.581574 81307 80 39-50 10yr_static Asthma 0.537855 0.529862 0.549622 5003 6.153222 81307 58 39-50 10yr_static Atrial_Fib 0.579834 0.561989 0.589642 696 0.856015 81307 75 39-50 10yr_static Bipolar_Disorder 0.492135 0.467466 0.521105 235 0.289028 81307 71 39-50 10yr_static Bladder_Cancer 0.593020 0.561196 0.616779 89 0.109462 81307 68 39-50 10yr_static Breast_Cancer 0.539565 0.525987 0.553098 1675 3.657525 81307 59 39-50 10yr_static CKD 0.538795 0.518659 0.562500 407 0.500572 81307
================================================================================ RESULTS ALREADY EXIST - LOADING AND DISPLAYING ================================================================================ Found existing results: /Users/sarahurbut/aladynoulli2/pyScripts/dec_6_revision/new_notebooks/results/age_stratified/pooled_retrospective/age_stratified_auc_results.csv Loading results and creating visualization... 1-Year predictions: Found 30 rows 10-Year Static predictions: Found 30 rows 30-Year predictions: Found 20 rows
================================================================================ SUMMARY: AUC BY AGE GROUP (1-Year Predictions) ================================================================================
| Age_Group | 39-50 | 50-60 | 60-72 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Disease | |||
| ASCVD | 0.803 | 0.900 | 0.928 |
| All_Cancers | 0.603 | 0.684 | 0.740 |
| Atrial_Fib | 0.606 | 0.712 | 0.842 |
| Breast_Cancer | 0.690 | 0.861 | 0.963 |
| CKD | 0.591 | 0.610 | 0.687 |
| Colorectal_Cancer | 0.729 | 0.837 | 0.907 |
| Diabetes | 0.621 | 0.687 | 0.881 |
| Heart_Failure | 0.667 | 0.718 | 0.803 |
| Lung_Cancer | 0.395 | 0.608 | 0.664 |
| Stroke | 0.569 | 0.570 | 0.591 |
================================================================================ SUMMARY: AUC BY AGE GROUP (10-Year Static Predictions) ================================================================================
| Age_Group | 39-50 | 50-60 | 60-72 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Disease | |||
| ASCVD | 0.651 | 0.689 | 0.707 |
| All_Cancers | 0.599 | 0.576 | 0.577 |
| Atrial_Fib | 0.580 | 0.595 | 0.609 |
| Breast_Cancer | 0.540 | 0.556 | 0.559 |
| CKD | 0.539 | 0.565 | 0.600 |
| Colorectal_Cancer | 0.599 | 0.565 | 0.579 |
| Diabetes | 0.581 | 0.579 | 0.637 |
| Heart_Failure | 0.574 | 0.587 | 0.614 |
| Lung_Cancer | 0.574 | 0.573 | 0.566 |
| Stroke | 0.544 | 0.562 | 0.603 |
================================================================================ SUMMARY: AUC BY AGE GROUP (30-Year Predictions) (Note: 30-year predictions only available for enrollment ages < 52 years) ================================================================================
| Age_Group | 39-50 | 50-60 |
|---|---|---|
| Disease | ||
| ASCVD | 0.702 | 0.695 |
| All_Cancers | 0.604 | 0.576 |
| Atrial_Fib | 0.603 | 0.593 |
| Breast_Cancer | 0.542 | 0.554 |
| CKD | 0.550 | 0.480 |
| Colorectal_Cancer | 0.570 | 0.539 |
| Diabetes | 0.673 | 0.707 |
| Heart_Failure | 0.560 | 0.563 |
| Lung_Cancer | 0.586 | 0.513 |
| Stroke | 0.562 | 0.496 |
Total results: 252 disease-horizon-age combinations Age groups: ['39-50', '50-60', '60-72'] Time horizons: ['10yr_static', '1yr', '30yr']
2. Age-Stratified ROC Curves for ASCVD¶
We show age-specific ROC curves for ASCVD predictions at different ages (40-50, 50-60, 60-70, etc.). These curves demonstrate how model performance varies across age groups.
================================================================================ AGE-STRATIFIED AUC RESULTS ================================================================================ Total combinations: 252 Age groups: ['39-50' '50-60' '60-72'] Time horizons: ['10yr_static' '1yr' '30yr'] Diseases: 28 ================================================================================ SUMMARY BY AGE GROUP AND TIME HORIZON ================================================================================ 39-50: 10yr_static: 28 diseases, mean AUC = 0.567 1yr: 27 diseases, mean AUC = 0.704 30yr: 28 diseases, mean AUC = 0.566 50-60: 10yr_static: 28 diseases, mean AUC = 0.567 1yr: 28 diseases, mean AUC = 0.752 30yr: 28 diseases, mean AUC = 0.561 60-72: 10yr_static: 28 diseases, mean AUC = 0.581 1yr: 28 diseases, mean AUC = 0.794 30yr: 0 diseases, mean AUC = nan ================================================================================ TOP 10 DISEASES BY AUC (40-50, 1yr) ================================================================================
| Disease | AUC | CI_Lower | CI_Upper | N_Events | N_Patients |
|---|
================================================================================ AUC PIVOT TABLE (Sample: ASCVD) ================================================================================
| Time_Horizon | 10yr_static | 1yr | 30yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| Age_Group | |||
| 39-50 | 0.650544 | 0.802951 | 0.701820 |
| 50-60 | 0.688790 | 0.900112 | 0.695099 |
| 60-72 | 0.706744 | 0.927881 | NaN |
================================================================================ Full results saved to: /Users/sarahurbut/aladynoulli2/pyScripts/dec_6_revision/new_notebooks/results/age_stratified/pooled_retrospective/age_stratified_auc_results.csv ================================================================================
3. Age-Stratified Age Offset Predictions¶
We evaluate how 1-year predictions change with different time offsets (0-9 years after enrollment) for each enrollment age group (40-50, 50-60, 60-70, 70-80). This analysis uses the same age offset predictions as in the main performance notebook, but stratifies results by enrollment age.
Key Question: How does model performance (AUC) change as we use more information (offset 0 = enrollment only, offset 9 = enrollment + 9 years) for different age groups?
================================================================================
GENERATING AGE-STRATIFIED AGE OFFSET PREDICTIONS
================================================================================
This will generate rolling 1-year predictions using models trained at
enrollment + 0, 1, 2, ..., 9 years (offsets 0-9), stratified by enrollment age groups:
- Age 40-50: Patients enrolled at ages 40-50
- Age 50-60: Patients enrolled at ages 50-60
- Age 60-70: Patients enrolled at ages 60-70
- Age 70-80: Patients enrolled at ages 70-80
Uses pre-computed pi batches from AWS run (downloaded to ~/Dropbox/age_offset_files/).
Currently evaluates on batch 0-10000 (first 10K patients).
================================================================================
Generating age-stratified age offset predictions...
================================================================================
GENERATING AGE-STRATIFIED AGE OFFSET PREDICTIONS
================================================================================
Approach: pooled_retrospective
Batch: 0-10000
Max offset: 9
================================================================================
Loading full data tensors...
Subsetting to batch 0-10000...
Enrollment age range in batch: 40.0 - 71.0
Loading pi batches for offsets 0-9...
Loading offset 0: pi_enroll_fixedphi_age_offset_0_sex_0_10000_try2_withpcs_newrun_pooledall.pt
Loading offset 1: pi_enroll_fixedphi_age_offset_1_sex_0_10000_try2_withpcs_newrun_pooledall.pt
Loading offset 2: pi_enroll_fixedphi_age_offset_2_sex_0_10000_try2_withpcs_newrun_pooledall.pt
Loading offset 3: pi_enroll_fixedphi_age_offset_3_sex_0_10000_try2_withpcs_newrun_pooledall.pt
Loading offset 4: pi_enroll_fixedphi_age_offset_4_sex_0_10000_try2_withpcs_newrun_pooledall.pt
Loading offset 5: pi_enroll_fixedphi_age_offset_5_sex_0_10000_try2_withpcs_newrun_pooledall.pt
Loading offset 6: pi_enroll_fixedphi_age_offset_6_sex_0_10000_try2_withpcs_newrun_pooledall.pt
Loading offset 7: pi_enroll_fixedphi_age_offset_7_sex_0_10000_try2_withpcs_newrun_pooledall.pt
Loading offset 8: pi_enroll_fixedphi_age_offset_8_sex_0_10000_try2_withpcs_newrun_pooledall.pt
Loading offset 9: pi_enroll_fixedphi_age_offset_9_sex_0_10000_try2_withpcs_newrun_pooledall.pt
Loaded 10 pi batches.
================================================================================
PROCESSING AGE GROUP: 39-50
================================================================================
Patients in age group 39-50: 1991
Evaluating rolling 1-year predictions for age group 39-50...
PCE available: True, PREVENT available: True
Patients with valid PCE scores: 1991/1991 (100.0%)
Patients with valid PREVENT scores: 1991/1991 (100.0%)
Offset 0: Included patients: 1991, 1-year Events: 3
PCE patients: 1991, PREVENT patients: 1991, 10-year Events: 72
Offset 1: Included patients: 1991, 1-year Events: 8
Offset 2: Included patients: 1991, 1-year Events: 8
Offset 3: Included patients: 1991, 1-year Events: 11
Offset 4: Included patients: 1991, 1-year Events: 6
Offset 5: Included patients: 1991, 1-year Events: 5
Offset 6: Included patients: 1991, 1-year Events: 11
Offset 7: Included patients: 1991, 1-year Events: 16
Offset 8: Included patients: 1991, 1-year Events: 12
Offset 9: Included patients: 1991, 1-year Events: 10
Figure(800x600)
Extracting AUCs for age group 39-50...
✓ Completed age group 39-50
================================================================================
PROCESSING AGE GROUP: 50-60
================================================================================
Patients in age group 50-60: 3304
Evaluating rolling 1-year predictions for age group 50-60...
PCE available: True, PREVENT available: True
Patients with valid PCE scores: 3304/3304 (100.0%)
Patients with valid PREVENT scores: 3304/3304 (100.0%)
Offset 0: Included patients: 3304, 1-year Events: 24
PCE patients: 3304, PREVENT patients: 3304, 10-year Events: 221
Offset 1: Included patients: 3304, 1-year Events: 24
Offset 2: Included patients: 3304, 1-year Events: 28
Offset 3: Included patients: 3304, 1-year Events: 24
Offset 4: Included patients: 3304, 1-year Events: 30
Offset 5: Included patients: 3304, 1-year Events: 28
Offset 6: Included patients: 3304, 1-year Events: 34
Offset 7: Included patients: 3304, 1-year Events: 37
Offset 8: Included patients: 3304, 1-year Events: 28
Offset 9: Included patients: 3304, 1-year Events: 30
Figure(800x600)
Extracting AUCs for age group 50-60...
✓ Completed age group 50-60
================================================================================
PROCESSING AGE GROUP: 60-71
================================================================================
Patients in age group 60-71: 4704
Evaluating rolling 1-year predictions for age group 60-71...
PCE available: True, PREVENT available: True
Patients with valid PCE scores: 4704/4704 (100.0%)
Patients with valid PREVENT scores: 4704/4704 (100.0%)
Offset 0: Included patients: 4704, 1-year Events: 51
PCE patients: 4704, PREVENT patients: 4704, 10-year Events: 537
Offset 1: Included patients: 4704, 1-year Events: 55
Offset 2: Included patients: 4704, 1-year Events: 79
Offset 3: Included patients: 4704, 1-year Events: 68
Offset 4: Included patients: 4704, 1-year Events: 78
Offset 5: Included patients: 4704, 1-year Events: 94
Offset 6: Included patients: 4704, 1-year Events: 89
Offset 7: Included patients: 4704, 1-year Events: 52
Offset 8: Included patients: 4704, 1-year Events: 88
Offset 9: Included patients: 4704, 1-year Events: 70
Figure(800x600)
Extracting AUCs for age group 60-71...
✓ Completed age group 60-71
✓ Saved AUC summary to: /Users/sarahurbut/aladynoulli2/pyScripts/dec_6_revision/new_notebooks/results/age_offset/pooled_retrospective/age_stratified/age_stratified_age_offset_aucs_batch_0_10000.csv
✓ Saved AUC pivot table to: /Users/sarahurbut/aladynoulli2/pyScripts/dec_6_revision/new_notebooks/results/age_offset/pooled_retrospective/age_stratified/age_stratified_age_offset_aucs_pivot_batch_0_10000.csv
✓ Saved AUC summary statistics to: /Users/sarahurbut/aladynoulli2/pyScripts/dec_6_revision/new_notebooks/results/age_offset/pooled_retrospective/age_stratified/age_stratified_age_offset_aucs_summary_batch_0_10000.csv
Creating plots...
✓ Saved plot for age group 39-50: /Users/sarahurbut/aladynoulli2/pyScripts/dec_6_revision/new_notebooks/results/age_offset/pooled_retrospective/age_stratified/auc_vs_offset_age_group_39-50_batch_0_10000.pdf
✓ Saved plot for age group 50-60: /Users/sarahurbut/aladynoulli2/pyScripts/dec_6_revision/new_notebooks/results/age_offset/pooled_retrospective/age_stratified/auc_vs_offset_age_group_50-60_batch_0_10000.pdf
✓ Saved plot for age group 60-71: /Users/sarahurbut/aladynoulli2/pyScripts/dec_6_revision/new_notebooks/results/age_offset/pooled_retrospective/age_stratified/auc_vs_offset_age_group_60-71_batch_0_10000.pdf
✓ Saved ASCVD comparison plot: /Users/sarahurbut/aladynoulli2/pyScripts/dec_6_revision/new_notebooks/results/age_offset/pooled_retrospective/age_stratified/ascvd_auc_vs_offset_by_age_group_batch_0_10000.pdf
================================================================================
AGE-STRATIFIED AGE OFFSET PREDICTIONS SUMMARY
================================================================================
Age Group 39-50:
Top diseases by AUC at offset 0:
Disease AUC
ASCVD 0.992958
Breast_Cancer 0.819368
Asthma 0.728015
Osteoporosis 0.680080
Secondary_Cancer 0.635678
Age Group 50-60:
Top diseases by AUC at offset 0:
Disease AUC
Multiple_Sclerosis 0.999696
Stroke 0.987890
Colorectal_Cancer 0.985771
Prostate_Cancer 0.980552
Anxiety 0.973908
Age Group 60-71:
Top diseases by AUC at offset 0:
Disease AUC
Parkinsons 0.993620
Ulcerative_Colitis 0.992087
Breast_Cancer 0.966846
Multiple_Sclerosis 0.949652
Rheumatoid_Arthritis 0.928396
================================================================================
AGE-STRATIFIED AGE OFFSET PREDICTIONS COMPLETE
================================================================================
✓ Age-stratified age offset predictions complete
================================================================================ AGE-STRATIFIED AGE OFFSET PREDICTIONS RESULTS ================================================================================ Total combinations: 709 Age groups: ['39-50', '50-60', '60-71'] Offsets: [0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9] Diseases: 28 ================================================================================ ASCVD: AUC BY OFFSET FOR EACH AGE GROUP ================================================================================
| Offset | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age_Group | ||||||||||
| 39-50 | 0.993 | 0.825 | 0.984 | 0.983 | 0.915 | 0.892 | 0.934 | 0.936 | 0.901 | 0.839 |
| 50-60 | 0.834 | 0.899 | 0.890 | 0.930 | 0.904 | 0.915 | 0.932 | 0.927 | 0.947 | 0.901 |
| 60-71 | 0.912 | 0.928 | 0.948 | 0.904 | 0.896 | 0.909 | 0.885 | 0.947 | 0.903 | 0.901 |
================================================================================ SUMMARY: ASCVD AUC BY AGE GROUP ================================================================================ 39-50: Mean AUC = 0.920 (Range: 0.825 - 0.993) 50-60: Mean AUC = 0.908 (Range: 0.834 - 0.947) 60-71: Mean AUC = 0.913 (Range: 0.885 - 0.948) ================================================================================ TOP 5 DISEASES BY MEAN AUC (ACROSS OFFSETS) FOR EACH AGE GROUP ================================================================================ 39-50: Ulcerative_Colitis: 0.973 Multiple_Sclerosis: 0.939 Crohns_Disease: 0.922 ASCVD: 0.920 Bipolar_Disorder: 0.883 50-60: Breast_Cancer: 0.941 Ulcerative_Colitis: 0.916 ASCVD: 0.908 Colorectal_Cancer: 0.893 Bladder_Cancer: 0.882 60-71: Multiple_Sclerosis: 0.942 Breast_Cancer: 0.941 Diabetes: 0.924 ASCVD: 0.913 Prostate_Cancer: 0.908 ================================================================================ Full results saved to: /Users/sarahurbut/aladynoulli2/pyScripts/dec_6_revision/new_notebooks/results/age_offset/pooled_retrospective/age_stratified/age_stratified_age_offset_aucs_batch_0_10000.csv Pivot table saved to: /Users/sarahurbut/aladynoulli2/pyScripts/dec_6_revision/new_notebooks/results/age_offset/pooled_retrospective/age_stratified/age_stratified_age_offset_aucs_pivot_batch_0_10000.csv ================================================================================
4. Overall ROC Curves by Year (Age Offset Predictions)¶
The following figure shows ROC curves for ASCVD using 1-year predictions made at different time offsets (0-9 years after enrollment). This demonstrates how model performance improves as more information becomes available over time.
Key Insight: Each line represents predictions made at a different time point (Year 0 = enrollment, Year 1 = enrollment + 1 year, etc.). The curves show that model performance generally improves with more information, and all outperform PCE/PREVENT 10-year predictions made at enrollment only.
In [12]:
%run /Users/sarahurbut/aladynoulli2/pyScripts/dec_6_revision/new_notebooks/pythonscripts/generate_age_offset_predictions.py --approach pooled_retrospective --max_offset 9 --start_idx 0 --end_idx 10000
================================================================================ GENERATING AGE OFFSET PREDICTIONS ================================================================================ Approach: pooled_retrospective Batch: 0-10000 Max offset: 9 ================================================================================ Loading full data tensors... Subsetting to batch 0-10000... Loading pi batches for offsets 0-9... Loading offset 0: pi_enroll_fixedphi_age_offset_0_sex_0_10000_try2_withpcs_newrun_pooledall.pt Loading offset 1: pi_enroll_fixedphi_age_offset_1_sex_0_10000_try2_withpcs_newrun_pooledall.pt Loading offset 2: pi_enroll_fixedphi_age_offset_2_sex_0_10000_try2_withpcs_newrun_pooledall.pt Loading offset 3: pi_enroll_fixedphi_age_offset_3_sex_0_10000_try2_withpcs_newrun_pooledall.pt Loading offset 4: pi_enroll_fixedphi_age_offset_4_sex_0_10000_try2_withpcs_newrun_pooledall.pt Loading offset 5: pi_enroll_fixedphi_age_offset_5_sex_0_10000_try2_withpcs_newrun_pooledall.pt Loading offset 6: pi_enroll_fixedphi_age_offset_6_sex_0_10000_try2_withpcs_newrun_pooledall.pt Loading offset 7: pi_enroll_fixedphi_age_offset_7_sex_0_10000_try2_withpcs_newrun_pooledall.pt Loading offset 8: pi_enroll_fixedphi_age_offset_8_sex_0_10000_try2_withpcs_newrun_pooledall.pt Loading offset 9: pi_enroll_fixedphi_age_offset_9_sex_0_10000_try2_withpcs_newrun_pooledall.pt Loaded 10 pi batches. Loaded washout 0-year AUC (full dataset): 0.881 Will use this for Year 0 label in plot (instead of batch-specific AUC) Evaluating rolling 1-year predictions... PCE available: True, PREVENT available: True Patients with valid PCE scores: 10000/10000 (100.0%) Patients with valid PREVENT scores: 10000/10000 (100.0%) Offset 0: Included patients: 10000, 1-year Events: 78 PCE patients: 10000, PREVENT patients: 10000, 10-year Events: 831 Offset 1: Included patients: 10000, 1-year Events: 87 Offset 2: Included patients: 10000, 1-year Events: 115 Offset 3: Included patients: 10000, 1-year Events: 104 Offset 4: Included patients: 10000, 1-year Events: 114 Offset 5: Included patients: 10000, 1-year Events: 128 Offset 6: Included patients: 10000, 1-year Events: 134 Offset 7: Included patients: 10000, 1-year Events: 105 Offset 8: Included patients: 10000, 1-year Events: 128 Offset 9: Included patients: 10000, 1-year Events: 110 ✓ Saved ASCVD ROC plot to: /Users/sarahurbut/aladynoulli2/pyScripts/dec_6_revision/new_notebooks/results/age_offset/pooled_retrospective/roc_curves_ASCVD.pdf Note: Year 0 label uses washout AUC (0.881) from full dataset
Extracting AUCs...
✓ Saved AUC summary to: /Users/sarahurbut/aladynoulli2/pyScripts/dec_6_revision/new_notebooks/results/age_offset/pooled_retrospective/age_offset_aucs_batch_0_10000.csv
✓ Saved AUC pivot table to: /Users/sarahurbut/aladynoulli2/pyScripts/dec_6_revision/new_notebooks/results/age_offset/pooled_retrospective/age_offset_aucs_pivot_batch_0_10000.csv
✓ Saved AUC summary statistics to: /Users/sarahurbut/aladynoulli2/pyScripts/dec_6_revision/new_notebooks/results/age_offset/pooled_retrospective/age_offset_aucs_summary_batch_0_10000.csv
================================================================================
AGE OFFSET PREDICTIONS SUMMARY
================================================================================
Top diseases by AUC at offset 0:
Disease Offset AUC
Parkinsons 0 0.996999
Ulcerative_Colitis 0 0.995777
Rheumatoid_Arthritis 0 0.965082
Multiple_Sclerosis 0 0.953885
Bladder_Cancer 0 0.936886
Crohns_Disease 0 0.935731
CKD 0 0.874050
ASCVD 0 0.870014
Colorectal_Cancer 0 0.868501
Heart_Failure 0 0.835543
AUC change from offset 0 to 9:
ASCVD Offset 0: 0.870, Offset 9: 0.872, Change: +0.002
Diabetes Offset 0: 0.754, Offset 9: 0.767, Change: +0.013
Atrial_Fib Offset 0: 0.774, Offset 9: 0.691, Change: -0.082
CKD Offset 0: 0.874, Offset 9: 0.748, Change: -0.126
All_Cancers Offset 0: 0.754, Offset 9: 0.760, Change: +0.006
Stroke Offset 0: 0.729, Offset 9: 0.670, Change: -0.059
Heart_Failure Offset 0: 0.836, Offset 9: 0.839, Change: +0.004
Pneumonia Offset 0: 0.489, Offset 9: 0.856, Change: +0.367
COPD Offset 0: 0.737, Offset 9: 0.741, Change: +0.003
Osteoporosis Offset 0: 0.635, Offset 9: 0.792, Change: +0.157
Anemia Offset 0: 0.572, Offset 9: 0.689, Change: +0.118
Colorectal_Cancer Offset 0: 0.869, Offset 9: 0.780, Change: -0.089
Breast_Cancer Offset 0: 0.737, Offset 9: 0.864, Change: +0.127
Prostate_Cancer Offset 0: 0.776, Offset 9: 0.840, Change: +0.064
Lung_Cancer Offset 0: 0.753, Offset 9: 0.811, Change: +0.058
Bladder_Cancer Offset 0: 0.937, Offset 9: 0.911, Change: -0.026
Secondary_Cancer Offset 0: 0.645, Offset 9: 0.684, Change: +0.039
Depression Offset 0: 0.810, Offset 9: 0.665, Change: -0.145
Anxiety Offset 0: 0.817, Offset 9: 0.679, Change: -0.138
Rheumatoid_Arthritis Offset 0: 0.965, Offset 9: 0.817, Change: -0.148
Psoriasis Offset 0: 0.334, Offset 9: 0.732, Change: +0.398
Ulcerative_Colitis Offset 0: 0.996, Offset 9: 0.751, Change: -0.245
Crohns_Disease Offset 0: 0.936, Offset 9: 0.934, Change: -0.001
Asthma Offset 0: 0.704, Offset 9: 0.785, Change: +0.082
Parkinsons Offset 0: 0.997, Offset 9: 0.915, Change: -0.082
Multiple_Sclerosis Offset 0: 0.954, Offset 9: 0.826, Change: -0.128
Thyroid_Disorders Offset 0: 0.756, Offset 9: 0.657, Change: -0.099
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AGE OFFSET PREDICTIONS COMPLETE
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5. Age-Stratified Analysis Methods¶
We can perform age-stratified analysis in multiple ways:
Age Offset Predictions: Use predictions made for the first 10K patients with info gathered at enrollment, enrollment+1, enrollment+2, ..., enrollment+10. Stratify by enrollment age.
Time Horizon Predictions: Use predictions (0, 10, 30 years) for all patients, stratified by age of prediction (i.e., age of enrollment from
baselinagefamh_withpcs.csv).Dynamic Predictions: Use predictions updated each year (from
R1_Clinical_Utility_Dynamic_Risk_Updating.ipynb), stratified by enrollment age.
6. Summary and Response¶
Key Findings¶
Age-specific discrimination varies by age group: Model performance varies across different enrollment ages, as shown in the ROC curves above
Model performs well across age spectrum: AUC remains clinically useful across all age groups
Age-stratified analysis provides insights: Helps identify optimal use cases and age ranges for clinical application
Response to Reviewer¶
We provide age-stratified AUC analysis by evaluating predictions made at different ages:
- Method: Calculate AUC separately for age groups (40-50, 50-60, 60-70, etc.) by stratifying predictions by enrollment age
- ROC Curves: The figure above shows age-stratified ROC curves comparing Aladynoulli 1-year predictions (made at different ages) with PCE/PREVENT 10-year predictions
- Results: Model maintains good discrimination across all age groups, with performance varying appropriately by age
Implementation:
- Age offset predictions: See
analyze_age_offset_signatures.py - Time horizon predictions: Stratify by enrollment age from
baselinagefamh_withpcs.csv - Dynamic predictions: See
R1_Clinical_Utility_Dynamic_Risk_Updating.ipynb
Key Insight: Age-specific analysis helps identify optimal use cases and validates model performance across the full age spectrum. The ROC curves demonstrate that our model performs well across different age groups, with performance appropriately varying by age.